EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mo8ia41e_y5g8yd
LINK

LINK

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T10:54:01Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.89%.

  • Closed -0.89% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.4419
Entry high
$9.5319
Target 1
$9.738
Target 2
$9.8919
Stop loss
$9.2619
LINK · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
9.9789.50459.0318.55748.08398.51625/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
38.4
Bearish
ADX 14
31.1
Trending
ATR 14
0.2100
2.46% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 9.41
Lower 8.25
inside
SMA stack
208.83
509.03
2009.62
TA Workspace · LINK
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LINK · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $8.5091 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
444.4444 LINK
$4.22K
Leverage
0.42x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.738
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 9.8919
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 9.2619
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LINK on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Candidate quality is 104.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.0, returned 12.86%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 18.2, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $9.2619, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
LINK Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. LINK cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LINK
Timestamp1776768699582
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.42,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": -0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.54,
    "middle": 9.3,
    "lower": 9.05,
    "width": 5.31
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0.15,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 54.3
  },
  "adx14": 18.21,
  "obv": -87149.67203445015
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1776768699580,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.46,
        "middle": 9.39,
        "lower": 9.31,
        "width": 1.58
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 64.06
      },
      "adx14": 37.56,
      "obv": 68792.51699250996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1776768699581,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.43,
        "middle": 9.32,
        "lower": 9.21,
        "width": 2.31
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 52.26
      },
      "adx14": 23.35,
      "obv": 72040.70189960995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1776768699581,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.54,
        "middle": 9.3,
        "lower": 9.05,
        "width": 5.31
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.15,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 54.3
      },
      "adx14": 18.21,
      "obv": -87149.67203445015
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1776768699582,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.1,
        "signal": 0.07,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.63,
        "middle": 9.05,
        "lower": 8.47,
        "width": 12.8
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.43,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 31.24
      },
      "adx14": 11.9,
      "obv": -10112279.691003764
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest53424279.30
Price9.49
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.81
Leverage3
Stop loss9.26
Take profit9.89
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.37
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LINK; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score85.30
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence78.50
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.3.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.50
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score31.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.4869
Funding rate
0.0091%
Open interest
$53.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See LINK chart with overlay More thesesAll LINK theses