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Thesis · thesis_mo8l26n9_87sc01
CRV

CRV

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T12:11:54Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.69%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -1.69% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2328
Entry high
$0.2342
Target 1
$0.2374
Target 2
$0.2398
Stop loss
$0.2300
CRV · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.2420.230.21810.20610.19420.20865/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
46.9
Neutral
ADX 14
31.1
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.79% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2200
Lower 0.2000
inside
SMA stack
200.2100
500.2100
2000.2400
TA Workspace · CRV
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CRV · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.208140 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
28,571.4286 CRV
$6.67K
Leverage
0.67x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2374
+1.11R$111.43(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.2398
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.23
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CRV on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 118.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 16.0, returned 9.79%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.6.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 23.3, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
CRV Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. CRV cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CRV
Price0.23
Timestamp1776773335144
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.74,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.24,
    "middle": 0.23,
    "lower": 0.22,
    "width": 5.65
  },
  "sma20": 0.23,
  "sma50": 0.23,
  "sma200": 0.22,
  "ema12": 0.23,
  "ema26": 0.23,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 79.58,
    "d": 84.18
  },
  "adx14": 23.25,
  "obv": -4400935.99016363
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776773335142,
    "price": 0.23351038,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 0.88
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 6.48,
        "d": 18.83
      },
      "adx14": 19.49,
      "obv": 1189921.6757278095
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776773335143,
    "price": 0.23351038,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.22,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 2.51
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 52.92,
        "d": 64.86
      },
      "adx14": 18.7,
      "obv": -406954.60920672107
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776773335144,
    "price": 0.23351038,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 5.65
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.58,
        "d": 84.18
      },
      "adx14": 23.25,
      "obv": -4400935.99016363
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776773335144,
    "price": 0.23351038,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.21,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 16.2
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.36,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.22,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 68.85,
        "d": 62.03
      },
      "adx14": 12.76,
      "obv": -132037202.88853186
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest7474264.63
Price0.23
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.23
Take profit0.24
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.50
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CRV; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score85.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence82.20
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.6.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-0.70
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2335
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$7.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See CRV chart with overlay More thesesAll CRV theses