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Thesis · thesis_mo8l94kw_whoymw
NEAR

NEAR

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 43d ago · 2026-04-21T12:17:09Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.93%.

  • Closed -0.93% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.3832
Entry high
$1.3947
Target 1
$1.4212
Target 2
$1.441
Stop loss
$1.36
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
68.7
Bullish
ADX 14
27.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.1500
5.06% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2.99
Lower 2.11
inside
SMA stack
202.55
502.50
2001.87
TA Workspace · NEAR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

NEAR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $2.9701 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,454.2314 NEAR
$4.80K
Leverage
0.48x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.4212
+1.11R$111.40(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 1.441
+1.80R$179.79(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 1.36
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open NEAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 71.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.6, returned 11.91%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 99.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 16.9, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $1.3600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
NEAR Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. NEAR cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
NEAR
Price1.39
Timestamp1776773807160
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 55.07,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": -0.01,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.4,
    "middle": 1.36,
    "lower": 1.32,
    "width": 5.27
  },
  "sma20": 1.36,
  "sma50": 1.39,
  "sma200": 1.3,
  "ema12": 1.37,
  "ema26": 1.37,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 89.11,
    "d": 90.08
  },
  "adx14": 16.9,
  "obv": 835142.1993133402
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776773807158,
    "price": 1.38894066,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.4,
        "middle": 1.38,
        "lower": 1.37,
        "width": 2.07
      },
      "sma20": 1.38,
      "sma50": 1.37,
      "sma200": 1.36,
      "ema12": 1.39,
      "ema26": 1.38,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 59.7,
        "d": 73.23
      },
      "adx14": 38.62,
      "obv": 56165.40088543997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776773807158,
    "price": 1.38894066,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.39,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.39,
        "middle": 1.37,
        "lower": 1.35,
        "width": 3.43
      },
      "sma20": 1.37,
      "sma50": 1.36,
      "sma200": 1.39,
      "ema12": 1.38,
      "ema26": 1.37,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 82.85,
        "d": 87.9
      },
      "adx14": 20.64,
      "obv": 78804.8659781099
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776773807159,
    "price": 1.38894066,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.07,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.4,
        "middle": 1.36,
        "lower": 1.32,
        "width": 5.27
      },
      "sma20": 1.36,
      "sma50": 1.39,
      "sma200": 1.3,
      "ema12": 1.37,
      "ema26": 1.37,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 89.11,
        "d": 90.08
      },
      "adx14": 16.9,
      "obv": 835142.1993133402
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776773807160,
    "price": 1.38894066,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.34,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.48,
        "middle": 1.33,
        "lower": 1.19,
        "width": 21.87
      },
      "sma20": 1.33,
      "sma50": 1.3,
      "sma200": 1.65,
      "ema12": 1.36,
      "ema26": 1.33,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.42,
        "d": 59.39
      },
      "adx14": 29.13,
      "obv": -4860653.98253068
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest28576083.73
Price1.39
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.96
Leverage3
Stop loss1.36
Take profit1.44
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.08
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for NEAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA still leans with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score99.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.60
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA still leans with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 99.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-0.40
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score17.80
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.3889
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$28.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See NEAR chart with overlay More thesesAll NEAR theses