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Thesis · thesis_mo8qdidz_25vk0g
APE

APE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 88d ago · 2026-04-21T14:40:39Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.27%.

  • Closed -1.27% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1032
Entry high
$0.1044
Target 1
$0.1085
Target 2
$0.1113
Stop loss
$0.1001
APE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.16050.14470.12890.1130.09720.14217/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
35.1
Bearish
ADX 14
24.0
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1500
2000.1400
TA Workspace · APE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.142040 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
27,027.027 APE
$2.81K
Leverage
0.28x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.03
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1085
+1.27R$127.03(+1.27%)
T2 hit @ 0.1113
+2.03R$202.70(+2.03%)
Stop hit @ 0.1001
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 112.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 24.7, returned 17.84%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 94.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 45.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1001, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
APE Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming. APE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
APE
Price0.10
Timestamp1776782206154
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.72,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.1,
    "width": 6.31
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.1,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 64.97,
    "d": 47.11
  },
  "adx14": 45.29,
  "obv": -358347.46281151904
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776782206152,
    "price": 0.10380862,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 2.86
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.32,
        "d": 71.57
      },
      "adx14": 28.49,
      "obv": 141613.16524654
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776782206152,
    "price": 0.10380862,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.62,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 4.11
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.62,
        "d": 83.09
      },
      "adx14": 12.73,
      "obv": -530094.6837235398
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776782206153,
    "price": 0.10380862,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 6.31
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.97,
        "d": 47.11
      },
      "adx14": 45.29,
      "obv": -358347.46281151904
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776782206154,
    "price": 0.10380862,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.19,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 34.12
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 42.34,
        "d": 42.11
      },
      "adx14": 29.19,
      "obv": -22645913.106009774
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1558352.13
Price0.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.19
Leverage2
Stop loss0.10
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.61
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.7
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score94
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence81.40
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.7
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 94.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1.50
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score44.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1038
Funding rate
-0.0112%
Open interest
$1.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See APE chart with overlay More thesesAll APE theses