Thesis · thesis_mo8siol9_zcevx5

GRASS

longWIN 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-21T15:40:40Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

+0.07%

peak +0.07% · MAE +0.01%

R:R

1.8:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +7.01%.

High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
Captured most of the move — exit near the +7.01% peak with minimal giveback.
Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.3412

Entry high

$0.3453

Target 1

$0.3581

Target 2

$0.3672

Stop loss

$0.3300

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden crossMACD · bullish_cross

RSI 14

57.8

Bullish

ADX 14

25.8

Trending

ATR 14

0.0300

5.90% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.5100

Lower 0.4400

inside

SMA stack

200.4800

500.4900

2000.4000

TA Workspace · GRASS

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.517350 · max 3x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 3x)

Trade plan

Position size

7,547.1698 GRASS

$2.59K

Leverage

0.26x

≤ 3x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.81

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.3581

+1.12R$112.08(+1.12%)

T2 hit @ 0.3672

+1.81R$180.75(+1.81%)

Stop hit @ 0.33

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

1d ADX confirms trend strength.
4h structure leans constructive.
Replay supports the live regime read.
Candidate quality is 120.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 27.7, returned 22.72%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.

Bear case

ADX is only near 16.6, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
The stop band sits near $0.3300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis

GRASS Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. GRASS cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

GRASS

Price0.34

Timestamp1776785870207

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 52.72,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.35,
    "middle": 0.33,
    "lower": 0.32,
    "width": 10.92
  },
  "sma20": 0.33,
  "sma50": 0.35,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.34,
  "ema26": 0.34,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 92.12,
    "d": 86.59
  },
  "adx14": 16.64,
  "obv": -423035.24304000003
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776785870205,
    "price": 0.34327659,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.34,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 0.86
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 33.33
      },
      "adx14": 32.61,
      "obv": 64035.60595
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776785870206,
    "price": 0.34327659,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.35,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.33,
        "width": 5.29
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 95.15
      },
      "adx14": 13.35,
      "obv": -110298.70563000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776785870207,
    "price": 0.34327659,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.35,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.32,
        "width": 10.92
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 92.12,
        "d": 86.59
      },
      "adx14": 16.64,
      "obv": -423035.24304000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776785870207,
    "price": 0.34327659,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 33.94
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 54.55,
        "d": 42.37
      },
      "adx14": 23.93,
      "obv": -88926.05684000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest1495737.50

Price0.34

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

medium

Max position %3.07

Leverage2

Stop loss0.33

Take profit0.37

Risk:Reward

1.8:1

Max drawdown %3.87

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy lab B is constructive
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 27.7
warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence85.90

Reasons

STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 27.7
warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score-2.10

Note

Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.

Strategy commander brain

State

warming

Score55.70

Note

Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.

Strategy lab brain

State

constructive

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.3433

Funding rate

0.0013%

Open interest

$1.5M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

warming

Strategy lab

constructive

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See GRASS chart with overlay More theses All GRASS theses