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Thesis · thesis_mo8sps3l_4ppb00
INJ

INJ

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-21T15:46:07Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.68%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.68% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.2684
Entry high
$3.275
Target 1
$3.2879
Target 2
$3.2979
Stop loss
$3.2586
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
51.2
Neutral
ADX 14
40.6
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.3800
5.68% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 7.32
Lower 6.18
inside
SMA stack
206.75
506.28
2004.99
TA Workspace · INJ
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

INJ · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $6.7094 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
7,633.5878 INJ
$24.97K
Leverage
2.50x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$2.6167
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 3.2879
+1.24R$123.66(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 3.2979
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 3.2586
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open INJ on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 120.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 18.0, returned 9.01%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 26.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $3.2586, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane.

Final thesis
INJ Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane. INJ cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
INJ
Price3.27
Timestamp1776786200156
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 50.57,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 3.34,
    "middle": 3.26,
    "lower": 3.18,
    "width": 4.73
  },
  "sma20": 3.26,
  "sma50": 3.22,
  "sma200": 3.01,
  "ema12": 3.28,
  "ema26": 3.27,
  "atr14": 0.07,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 52.51,
    "d": 65.99
  },
  "adx14": 26.64,
  "obv": -66685.8415850201
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776786200154,
    "price": 3.27171497,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.9,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.33,
        "middle": 3.29,
        "lower": 3.25,
        "width": 2.6
      },
      "sma20": 3.29,
      "sma50": 3.29,
      "sma200": 3.28,
      "ema12": 3.28,
      "ema26": 3.29,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 29.43,
        "d": 14.27
      },
      "adx14": 21.55,
      "obv": 95.54993763999619
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776786200155,
    "price": 3.27171497,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.13,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.34,
        "middle": 3.3,
        "lower": 3.25,
        "width": 2.73
      },
      "sma20": 3.3,
      "sma50": 3.28,
      "sma200": 3.22,
      "ema12": 3.29,
      "ema26": 3.29,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 24.66,
        "d": 21.71
      },
      "adx14": 16.66,
      "obv": 7400.906214000022
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776786200155,
    "price": 3.27171497,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.57,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.34,
        "middle": 3.26,
        "lower": 3.18,
        "width": 4.73
      },
      "sma20": 3.26,
      "sma50": 3.22,
      "sma200": 3.01,
      "ema12": 3.28,
      "ema26": 3.27,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 52.51,
        "d": 65.99
      },
      "adx14": 26.64,
      "obv": -66685.8415850201
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776786200156,
    "price": 3.27171497,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.9,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.08,
        "signal": 0.05,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.44,
        "middle": 3.04,
        "lower": 2.65,
        "width": 26.1
      },
      "sma20": 3.04,
      "sma50": 3.01,
      "sma200": 5.09,
      "ema12": 3.17,
      "ema26": 3.09,
      "atr14": 0.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 63.47,
        "d": 62.3
      },
      "adx14": 16.57,
      "obv": -2454765.5209853863
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1531503.97
Price3.27
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss3.26
Take profit3.30
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for INJ; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence89.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5
Note
Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score61.80
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.2717
Funding rate
0.0006%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See INJ chart with overlay More thesesAll INJ theses