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Thesis · thesis_mo8zfxfj_yom4p5
CC

CC

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-21T18:54:29Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.49%.

  • Closed -0.49% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1520
Entry high
$0.1530
Target 1
$0.1553
Target 2
$0.1570
Stop loss
$0.1500
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · noneMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
50.9
Neutral
ADX 14
19.5
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1500
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1600
2000.1500
TA Workspace · CC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.153840 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
40,000 CC
$6.10K
Leverage
0.61x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1553
+1.12R$112.00(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.157
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.15
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 64.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 21.9, returned 13.98%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
CC Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. CC cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CC
Price0.15
Timestamp1776797523330
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.8,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.16,
    "middle": 0.15,
    "lower": 0.14,
    "width": 10.24
  },
  "sma20": 0.15,
  "sma50": 0.15,
  "sma200": 0.15,
  "ema12": 0.15,
  "ema26": 0.15,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 44.77,
    "d": 32.78
  },
  "adx14": 24.78,
  "obv": -2424628.1769200074
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776797523326,
    "price": 0.152502,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.6,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 4.14
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 89.43,
        "d": 93.67
      },
      "adx14": 27.82,
      "obv": -4307723.267610002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776797523328,
    "price": 0.152502,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.75,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 10.3
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.03,
        "d": 47.36
      },
      "adx14": 29.47,
      "obv": 455348.33267000073
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776797523329,
    "price": 0.152502,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 10.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 44.77,
        "d": 32.78
      },
      "adx14": 24.78,
      "obv": -2424628.1769200074
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776797523330,
    "price": 0.152502,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.87,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 13.14
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 48.86,
        "d": 51.83
      },
      "adx14": 28.01,
      "obv": -104853526.35466
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest5723266.20
Price0.15
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.15
Take profit0.16
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.64
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.40
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.10
Note
Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score23.40
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1525
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$5.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See CC chart with overlay More thesesAll CC theses