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Thesis · thesis_mo95odw1_p1xjy9
ARB

ARB

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-21T21:48:56Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.03%
peak +0.05% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +3.46%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1230
Entry high
$0.1244
Target 1
$0.1283
Target 2
$0.1311
Stop loss
$0.1200
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
42.8
Bearish
ADX 14
22.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1100
Lower 0.0900
inside
SMA stack
200.1000
500.1000
2000.1200
TA Workspace · ARB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ARB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.096100 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
27,027.027 ARB
$3.34K
Leverage
0.33x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1283
+1.24R$124.32(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1311
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.12
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ARB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 106.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 9.10%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 69.1.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 25.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1200, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ARB Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. ARB cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ARB
Price0.12
Timestamp1776807995198
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 45.47,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.13,
    "middle": 0.13,
    "lower": 0.12,
    "width": 5.5
  },
  "sma20": 0.13,
  "sma50": 0.12,
  "sma200": 0.1,
  "ema12": 0.13,
  "ema26": 0.13,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 28.27,
    "d": 47.28
  },
  "adx14": 25.15,
  "obv": -4283287.190529998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776807995197,
    "price": 0.12369,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.04,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 2.59
      },
      "sma20": 0.12,
      "sma50": 0.13,
      "sma200": 0.13,
      "ema12": 0.12,
      "ema26": 0.13,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.56,
        "d": 29.51
      },
      "adx14": 14.5,
      "obv": 106376.02551
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776807995197,
    "price": 0.12369,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.13,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 3.68
      },
      "sma20": 0.13,
      "sma50": 0.13,
      "sma200": 0.12,
      "ema12": 0.13,
      "ema26": 0.13,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 12.11,
        "d": 15.37
      },
      "adx14": 15.13,
      "obv": -180271.57517000026
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776807995197,
    "price": 0.12369,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.13,
        "middle": 0.13,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 5.5
      },
      "sma20": 0.13,
      "sma50": 0.12,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.13,
      "ema26": 0.13,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.27,
        "d": 47.28
      },
      "adx14": 25.15,
      "obv": -4283287.190529998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776807995198,
    "price": 0.12369,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.14,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 47.28
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.12,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.57,
        "d": 69.37
      },
      "adx14": 32.53,
      "obv": -67571579.03572
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest10719771.25
Price0.12
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.51
Leverage2
Stop loss0.12
Take profit0.13
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.98
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ARB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread20.75
Dominant Conviction77.75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction77.75
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score69.10
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence68
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 69.1.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.50
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score32.10
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1237
Funding rate
-0.0026%
Open interest
$10.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ARB chart with overlay More thesesAll ARB theses