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Thesis · thesis_mo99nzl5_gyvnvl
GRASS

GRASS

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 87d ago · 2026-04-21T23:40:38Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.04%
peak +0.04% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +3.50%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +4.35% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3661
Entry high
$0.3705
Target 1
$0.3850
Target 2
$0.3953
Stop loss
$0.3533
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.40310.3880.37290.35780.34270.35797/13 22:007/15 04:007/16 10:007/17 16:007/18 22:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
40.4
Bearish
ADX 14
25.2
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
2.79% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4000
Lower 0.3400
inside
SMA stack
200.3700
500.3800
2000.4400
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.357910 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 GRASS
$2.46K
Leverage
0.25x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.385
+1.11R$111.33(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.3953
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.3533
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 101.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 23.0, returned 15.44%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 61.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 19.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3533, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
GRASS Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. GRASS cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.37
Timestamp1776814663202
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 64.89,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.36,
    "middle": 0.34,
    "lower": 0.31,
    "width": 16.16
  },
  "sma20": 0.34,
  "sma50": 0.35,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.35,
  "ema26": 0.34,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 95.64,
    "d": 97.52
  },
  "adx14": 19.76,
  "obv": -467925.12041999993
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776814663200,
    "price": 0.36830171,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 4.96
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.19,
        "d": 39.2
      },
      "adx14": 24.62,
      "obv": 2380.647280000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776814663200,
    "price": 0.36830171,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.32,
        "width": 14.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 91.27,
        "d": 74.17
      },
      "adx14": 29.09,
      "obv": -90329.65959999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776814663201,
    "price": 0.36830171,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.31,
        "width": 16.16
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.64,
        "d": 97.52
      },
      "adx14": 19.76,
      "obv": -467925.12041999993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776814663202,
    "price": 0.36830171,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.76,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 35.47
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.81,
        "d": 51.46
      },
      "adx14": 24.84,
      "obv": 14049.37692999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1627453.46
Price0.37
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.96
Leverage2
Stop loss0.35
Take profit0.40
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %4.07
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.0
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score61.30
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence59.40
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.0
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 61.3.
Live-learning brain
State
rewarding
Score3.40
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score30.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3683
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$1.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses