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Thesis · thesis_mo99v18d_rgtz1x
IMX

IMX

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-21T23:46:07Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.02%
peak +0.06% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +2.34%.

  • Closed +2.34% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1719
Entry high
$0.1739
Target 1
$0.1889
Target 2
$0.1987
Stop loss
$0.1600
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
46.1
Neutral
ADX 14
12.9
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1700
Lower 0.1500
inside
SMA stack
200.1600
500.1600
2000.1700
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · IMX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

IMX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.155270 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
7,751.938 IMX
$1.34K
Leverage
0.13x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1889
+1.24R$124.03(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1987
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.16
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open IMX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 75.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (exact regime) scored 13.7, returned 16.35%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 54.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 46.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1600, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
IMX Long: selective command with guarded risk

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is defensive. IMX cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
IMX
Price0.17
Timestamp1776815023141
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 62.98,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.18,
    "middle": 0.16,
    "lower": 0.15,
    "width": 15.34
  },
  "sma20": 0.16,
  "sma50": 0.16,
  "sma200": 0.15,
  "ema12": 0.17,
  "ema26": 0.17,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 42.86,
    "d": 42.86
  },
  "adx14": 46.32,
  "obv": 322873.37765250995
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776815023139,
    "price": 0.1729,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.17,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 1.64
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 38.71,
        "d": 19.38
      },
      "adx14": 9.82,
      "obv": 764178.46843203
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776815023140,
    "price": 0.1729,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 5.96
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.16,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 23.94,
        "d": 11.75
      },
      "adx14": 54.74,
      "obv": 1213177.2877568498
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776815023140,
    "price": 0.1729,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.16,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 15.34
      },
      "sma20": 0.16,
      "sma50": 0.16,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 42.86,
        "d": 42.86
      },
      "adx14": 46.32,
      "obv": 322873.37765250995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "IMX",
    "timestamp": 1776815023141,
    "price": 0.1729,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.93,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.12,
        "width": 35.25
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.28,
      "ema12": 0.16,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.74,
        "d": 49.07
      },
      "adx14": 24.67,
      "obv": -12922452.107913835
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest690172.12
Price0.17
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.16
Take profit0.20
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.46
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for IMX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score54.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence55.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 54.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.10
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score34.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1729
Funding rate
-0.0002%
Open interest
$0.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See IMX chart with overlay More thesesAll IMX theses