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Thesis · thesis_mo99zzbu_l03x71
ETH

ETH

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-21T23:49:54Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.48%.

  • Closed -0.48% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,325.86
Entry high
$2,330.52
Target 1
$2,340.96
Target 2
$2,348.78
Stop loss
$2,316.75
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
32.4
Bearish
ADX 14
41.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
37.31
1.99% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2075
Lower 1834
inside
SMA stack
201954
502001
2002177
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1870.70 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
8.7413 ETH
$20.35K
Leverage
2.04x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$1756.19
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2340.957
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 2348.782
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 2316.75
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 108.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.0, returned 11.49%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 13.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $2316.7500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
ETH Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. ETH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Price2328.19
Timestamp1776815256094
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.24,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -6.27,
    "signal": -6.62,
    "histogram": 0.35
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2357.76,
    "middle": 2316.75,
    "lower": 2275.75,
    "width": 3.54
  },
  "sma20": 2316.75,
  "sma50": 2341.31,
  "sma200": 2172.54,
  "ema12": 2316.87,
  "ema26": 2323.14,
  "atr14": 37.26,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 79.6,
    "d": 61.68
  },
  "adx14": 13.85,
  "obv": -48649.99536157996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami",
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776815256093,
    "price": 2328.19,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 2.68,
        "signal": 1.19,
        "histogram": 1.49
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2331.25,
        "middle": 2314.49,
        "lower": 2297.73,
        "width": 1.45
      },
      "sma20": 2314.49,
      "sma50": 2311.85,
      "sma200": 2307.87,
      "ema12": 2317.37,
      "ema26": 2314.69,
      "atr14": 9.8,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.4,
        "d": 85.04
      },
      "adx14": 10.06,
      "obv": 2316.617158340003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu",
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776815256093,
    "price": 2328.19,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.25,
        "signal": -0.48,
        "histogram": 0.73
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2331.93,
        "middle": 2315.16,
        "lower": 2298.4,
        "width": 1.45
      },
      "sma20": 2315.16,
      "sma50": 2308.26,
      "sma200": 2339.21,
      "ema12": 2314.41,
      "ema26": 2314.16,
      "atr14": 19.74,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.47,
        "d": 61.41
      },
      "adx14": 10.9,
      "obv": 12507.010796090008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776815256094,
    "price": 2328.19,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -6.27,
        "signal": -6.62,
        "histogram": 0.35
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2357.76,
        "middle": 2316.75,
        "lower": 2275.75,
        "width": 3.54
      },
      "sma20": 2316.75,
      "sma50": 2341.31,
      "sma200": 2172.54,
      "ema12": 2316.87,
      "ema26": 2323.14,
      "atr14": 37.26,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.6,
        "d": 61.68
      },
      "adx14": 13.85,
      "obv": -48649.99536157996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1776815256094,
    "price": 2328.19,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.57,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 60.51,
        "signal": 57.63,
        "histogram": 2.88
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2465.36,
        "middle": 2240.75,
        "lower": 2016.13,
        "width": 20.05
      },
      "sma20": 2240.75,
      "sma50": 2149.64,
      "sma200": 2834.37,
      "ema12": 2298.87,
      "ema26": 2238.36,
      "atr14": 103.25,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 55.39,
        "d": 56.14
      },
      "adx14": 21.93,
      "obv": -632537.1031404798
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1020089071.93
Price2328.19
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss2316.75
Take profit2348.78
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.49
Warnings
  • ADX 13.8 indicates weak trend.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread22.75
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.30
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.30
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.70
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,328.19
Funding rate
-0.0019%
Open interest
$1020.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses