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Thesis · thesis_mo9c11di_eziguc
GRASS

GRASS

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-22T00:46:49Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.08%
peak +0.08% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +7.86%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +7.86% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3779
Entry high
$0.3825
Target 1
$0.3970
Target 2
$0.4072
Stop loss
$0.3652
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.54740.49970.45190.40420.35650.50975/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
58.0
Bullish
ADX 14
25.8
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
5.89% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.5100
Lower 0.4400
above upper
SMA stack
200.4800
500.4900
2000.4000
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.510380 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 GRASS
$2.53K
Leverage
0.25x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.397
+1.12R$112.00(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.4072
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.3652
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 76.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 23.0, returned 15.44%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 40.2.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 21.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3652, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
GRASS Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. GRASS cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.38
Timestamp1776818663151
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 69.51,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.37,
    "middle": 0.34,
    "lower": 0.3,
    "width": 20.2
  },
  "sma20": 0.34,
  "sma50": 0.35,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.35,
  "ema26": 0.35,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 93.7,
    "d": 96.88
  },
  "adx14": 21.8,
  "obv": -318039.18901999993
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776818663150,
    "price": 0.38021549,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 77.5,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 8.22
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 82.47,
        "d": 93.99
      },
      "adx14": 29.47,
      "obv": -19410.147899999974
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776818663150,
    "price": 0.38021549,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 77.14,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.32,
        "width": 15.86
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 89.34,
        "d": 85.58
      },
      "adx14": 31.83,
      "obv": -63028.53267999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776818663151,
    "price": 0.38021549,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.3,
        "width": 20.2
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.7,
        "d": 96.88
      },
      "adx14": 21.8,
      "obv": -318039.18901999993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776818663151,
    "price": 0.38021549,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 36.06
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.79,
        "d": 75.7
      },
      "adx14": 25.27,
      "obv": 58390.13786999976
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1693883.43
Price0.38
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.03
Leverage2
Stop loss0.37
Take profit0.41
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.95
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score40.20
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence45.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 40.2.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score3.40
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score10.10
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3802
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$1.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses