Thesis · thesis_mo9e8a5o_1heng7

APE

longWIN 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-22T01:48:25Z · expires 2026-04-23

Conviction

68/100

Bull / Bear

76/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

+0.01%

peak +0.01% · MAE +0.00%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +1.39%.

High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
Captured most of the move — exit near the +1.39% peak with minimal giveback.
Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.1003

Entry high

$0.1005

Target 1

$0.1010

Target 2

$0.1013

Stop loss

$0.1000

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

58.2

Bullish

ADX 14

27.6

Trending

ATR 14

0.0100

6.63% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.1600

Lower 0.1400

inside

SMA stack

200.1500

500.1400

2000.1500

TA Workspace · APE

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.151420 · max 5x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 5x)

Trade plan

Position size

250,000 APE

$25.10K

Leverage

2.51x

≤ 5x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

$0.080400

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.25

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.101

+1.50R$150.00(+1.50%)

T2 hit @ 0.1013

+2.25R$225.00(+2.25%)

Stop hit @ 0.1

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h structure leans constructive.
Candidate quality is 87.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 19.6, returned 15.79%, win rate 66.7%.
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 31.9.
Historical lane Swing Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is fragile, so the desk should keep conviction and sizing tighter than normal.

Bear case

ADX is near 40.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.1000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

Final thesis

APE Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. APE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

APE

Price0.10

Timestamp1776822351144

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 46.67,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.1,
    "width": 6.14
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.1,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 2.42,
    "d": 9.61
  },
  "adx14": 40.8,
  "obv": -535506.3784263894
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776822351142,
    "price": 0.10044788,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 1.56
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 8.22,
        "d": 6.07
      },
      "adx14": 13.83,
      "obv": 127193.88824301002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776822351143,
    "price": 0.10044788,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 4.4
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 3.04,
        "d": 22.44
      },
      "adx14": 14.4,
      "obv": -771232.6700845298
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776822351143,
    "price": 0.10044788,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 6.14
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.42,
        "d": 9.61
      },
      "adx14": 40.8,
      "obv": -535506.3784263894
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776822351144,
    "price": 0.10044788,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 32.63
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 34.97,
        "d": 39.27
      },
      "adx14": 31.07,
      "obv": -23554313.87057363
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest1510025.50

Price0.10

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss0.10

Take profit0.10

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %0.45

Warnings

ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction76

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction76

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 39.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 19.6

FredAI policy

State

size_down

Score31.90

Conviction Adjustment-4

Risk Adjustment-2

Confidence30.30

Reasons

BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 19.6

Note

FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 31.9.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-6.80

Note

Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score35.80

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.1004

Funding rate

0.0100%

Open interest

$1.5M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol

Replay strategy

BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime

FredAI policy

size_down

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

provisional

Brain mode

fast

See APE chart with overlay More theses All APE theses