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Thesis · thesis_mo9g3gfy_kmv035
SPX

SPX

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 87d ago · 2026-04-22T02:40:39Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.06%
peak +0.06% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +5.92%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +5.92% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3490
Entry high
$0.3532
Target 1
$0.3635
Target 2
$0.3711
Stop loss
$0.3400
SPX · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.39650.37970.36290.34610.32930.33237/13 17:007/14 23:007/16 05:007/17 11:007/18 17:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · none
RSI 14
33.0
Bearish
ADX 14
21.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
3.01% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.3800
Lower 0.3300
inside
SMA stack
200.3600
500.3700
2000.3700
PatternsBearish Marubozu
TA Workspace · SPX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SPX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.341500 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
9,009.009 SPX
$3.16K
Leverage
0.32x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3635
+1.12R$111.71(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.3711
+1.80R$180.18(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.34
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SPX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 131.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (exact regime) scored 30.0, returned 22.70%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME TREND is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 16.3, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating.

Final thesis
SPX Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating. SPX cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SPX
Price0.35
Timestamp1776825473188
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.58,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.36,
    "middle": 0.33,
    "lower": 0.31,
    "width": 13.9
  },
  "sma20": 0.33,
  "sma50": 0.34,
  "sma200": 0.3,
  "ema12": 0.34,
  "ema26": 0.34,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 78.57,
    "d": 64.23
  },
  "adx14": 16.32,
  "obv": 619739.9222699997
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776825473187,
    "price": 0.3511,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.75,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.35,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.33,
        "width": 4.38
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.68,
        "d": 96.89
      },
      "adx14": 23.87,
      "obv": 244001.25838
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776825473187,
    "price": 0.3511,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.33,
        "width": 8.34
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.38,
        "d": 54.67
      },
      "adx14": 20.75,
      "obv": -2064862.6432400006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776825473187,
    "price": 0.3511,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.31,
        "width": 13.9
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 78.57,
        "d": 64.23
      },
      "adx14": 16.32,
      "obv": 619739.9222699997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776825473188,
    "price": 0.3511,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.66,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.26,
        "width": 38.3
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.54,
      "ema12": 0.33,
      "ema26": 0.32,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 67.98,
        "d": 60.66
      },
      "adx14": 18.64,
      "obv": -86970854.11787997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest3070653.93
Price0.35
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.42
Leverage2
Stop loss0.34
Take profit0.37
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.16
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SPX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 30.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84.90
Reasons
  • VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 30.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.40
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score62.10
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3511
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$3.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See SPX chart with overlay More thesesAll SPX theses