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Thesis · thesis_mo9v8nie_arqpr1
JUP

JUP

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-22T09:45:03Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.46%.

  • Closed -0.46% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1784
Entry high
$0.1799
Target 1
$0.1833
Target 2
$0.1858
Stop loss
$0.1754
JUP · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.21410.20360.19320.18280.17240.21175/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
62.8
Bullish
ADX 14
19.1
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
4.72% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2100
Lower 0.1800
inside
SMA stack
200.2000
500.1900
2000.2000
TA Workspace · JUP
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

JUP · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.211440 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,666.6667 JUP
$4.78K
Leverage
0.48x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.77
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1833
+1.11R$110.67(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.1858
+1.77R$177.33(+1.77%)
Stop hit @ 0.1754
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open JUP on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 122.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.8, returned 15.67%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. SMA CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.7, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1754, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
JUP Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. JUP cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
JUP
Price0.18
Timestamp1776850652477
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 60.65,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.18,
    "middle": 0.17,
    "lower": 0.17,
    "width": 8.18
  },
  "sma20": 0.17,
  "sma50": 0.17,
  "sma200": 0.16,
  "ema12": 0.17,
  "ema26": 0.17,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 97.87,
    "d": 92.17
  },
  "adx14": 24.7,
  "obv": -2301582.1877199984
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1776850652476,
    "price": 0.1791,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 1.23
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.18,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.18,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 68.59
      },
      "adx14": 40.65,
      "obv": -820247.8783800005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1776850652476,
    "price": 0.1791,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 8.55
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.18,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 97.63,
        "d": 93.84
      },
      "adx14": 29.45,
      "obv": 206213.65266999954
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1776850652477,
    "price": 0.1791,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 8.18
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.16,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 97.87,
        "d": 92.17
      },
      "adx14": 24.7,
      "obv": -2301582.1877199984
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1776850652477,
    "price": 0.1791,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 17.15
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.16,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.21,
        "d": 50.07
      },
      "adx14": 24.94,
      "obv": -2928740.6470000017
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest4599389.33
Price0.18
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.95
Leverage3
Stop loss0.18
Take profit0.19
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.09
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for JUP; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked JUP mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.8
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.90
Reasons
  • SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.8
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked JUP mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.80
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1791
Funding rate
-0.0061%
Open interest
$4.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See JUP chart with overlay More thesesAll JUP theses