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Thesis · thesis_mo9ve83l_xu9xyi
CRV

CRV

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-22T09:48:57Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.47%.

  • Closed -0.47% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2362
Entry high
$0.2390
Target 1
$0.2461
Target 2
$0.2513
Stop loss
$0.2300
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
46.1
Neutral
ADX 14
31.1
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.81% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2200
Lower 0.2000
inside
SMA stack
200.2100
500.2100
2000.2400
TA Workspace · CRV
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CRV · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.208090 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
13,157.8947 CRV
$3.13K
Leverage
0.31x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2461
+1.12R$111.84(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 0.2513
+1.80R$180.26(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.23
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CRV on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 104.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 16.0, returned 9.79%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 79.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 19.1, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
CRV Long: selective command with guarded risk

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. CRV cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CRV
Price0.24
Timestamp1776850652670
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 60.14,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.24,
    "middle": 0.23,
    "lower": 0.22,
    "width": 6.9
  },
  "sma20": 0.23,
  "sma50": 0.23,
  "sma200": 0.22,
  "ema12": 0.23,
  "ema26": 0.23,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 90.12,
    "d": 85.04
  },
  "adx14": 19.07,
  "obv": -4445292.813425568
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776850652668,
    "price": 0.2376,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.26,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.24,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 1.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.24,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.24,
      "ema26": 0.24,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 44.83,
        "d": 63.22
      },
      "adx14": 38.71,
      "obv": -576417.7597194205
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776850652669,
    "price": 0.2376,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 6.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.88,
        "d": 89.2
      },
      "adx14": 26.04,
      "obv": -1280696.087149512
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776850652669,
    "price": 0.2376,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.14,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 6.9
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.12,
        "d": 85.04
      },
      "adx14": 19.07,
      "obv": -4445292.813425568
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776850652670,
    "price": 0.2376,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.19,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 16.29
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.36,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.84,
        "d": 70.17
      },
      "adx14": 12.93,
      "obv": -131765071.94156285
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest7485301.30
Price0.24
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.40
Leverage2
Stop loss0.23
Take profit0.25
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.20
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CRV; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score79.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence78.20
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 79.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score2.30
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score29.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2376
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$7.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See CRV chart with overlay More thesesAll CRV theses