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Thesis · thesis_mo9vlabl_853nu2
FIL

FIL

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-22T09:54:49Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.33%.

  • Closed -0.33% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9512
Entry high
$0.9568
Target 1
$0.9696
Target 2
$0.9792
Stop loss
$0.9400
FIL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
1.02540.97760.92990.88220.83440.87615/29 01:005/30 07:005/31 13:006/1 19:006/3 01:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
47.5
Neutral
ADX 14
17.1
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0400
4.37% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.9900
Lower 0.8600
inside
SMA stack
200.9200
500.9600
2001.01
TA Workspace · FIL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FIL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.971690 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
7,142.8571 FIL
$6.81K
Leverage
0.68x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.9696
+1.11R$111.43(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.9792
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.94
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FIL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Candidate quality is 101.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 15.4, returned 5.38%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. DONCHIAN BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 95.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 17.1, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.9400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
FIL Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming. FIL cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FIL
Price0.95
Timestamp1776850652636
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 57.65,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.95,
    "middle": 0.93,
    "lower": 0.9,
    "width": 4.76
  },
  "sma20": 0.93,
  "sma50": 0.94,
  "sma200": 0.89,
  "ema12": 0.93,
  "ema26": 0.94,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 84.91,
    "d": 83.2
  },
  "adx14": 17.1,
  "obv": -1079085.5611671295
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FIL",
    "timestamp": 1776850652634,
    "price": 0.954,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.21,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.96,
        "middle": 0.95,
        "lower": 0.95,
        "width": 1.53
      },
      "sma20": 0.95,
      "sma50": 0.94,
      "sma200": 0.93,
      "ema12": 0.95,
      "ema26": 0.95,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.5,
        "d": 83.01
      },
      "adx14": 35.43,
      "obv": 93318.90480887995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FIL",
    "timestamp": 1776850652635,
    "price": 0.954,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.96,
        "middle": 0.93,
        "lower": 0.9,
        "width": 6.15
      },
      "sma20": 0.93,
      "sma50": 0.93,
      "sma200": 0.94,
      "ema12": 0.94,
      "ema26": 0.94,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.31,
        "d": 80.31
      },
      "adx14": 29.76,
      "obv": 261882.62226402038
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FIL",
    "timestamp": 1776850652636,
    "price": 0.954,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.95,
        "middle": 0.93,
        "lower": 0.9,
        "width": 4.76
      },
      "sma20": 0.93,
      "sma50": 0.94,
      "sma200": 0.89,
      "ema12": 0.93,
      "ema26": 0.94,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.91,
        "d": 83.2
      },
      "adx14": 17.1,
      "obv": -1079085.5611671295
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FIL",
    "timestamp": 1776850652636,
    "price": 0.954,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.99,
        "middle": 0.91,
        "lower": 0.82,
        "width": 19.38
      },
      "sma20": 0.91,
      "sma50": 0.9,
      "sma200": 1.32,
      "ema12": 0.93,
      "ema26": 0.91,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 59.88,
        "d": 49.24
      },
      "adx14": 11.77,
      "obv": -7462553.126475111
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2633795.88
Price0.95
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.94
Take profit0.98
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.47
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FIL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked FIL mostly because: Directional debate is still neutral (spread 2.2 / conviction 55.4), so thesis synthesis is skipped.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.4
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score95.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence83.30
Reasons
  • DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.4
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 95.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked FIL mostly because: Directional debate is still neutral (spread 2.2 / conviction 55.4), so thesis synthesis is skipped.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score44.70
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.954
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$2.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See FIL chart with overlay More thesesAll FIL theses