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Thesis · thesis_moa1jgg3_bwwn7p
JUP

JUP

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 42d ago · 2026-04-22T12:40:58Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.53%.

  • Closed -0.53% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1775
Entry high
$0.1790
Target 1
$0.1825
Target 2
$0.1850
Stop loss
$0.1745
JUP · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.21140.20170.19190.18220.17250.20785/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
60.4
Bullish
ADX 14
18.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
4.81% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2100
Lower 0.1800
inside
SMA stack
200.2000
500.1900
2000.2000
TA Workspace · JUP
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

JUP · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.208150 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,666.6667 JUP
$4.75K
Leverage
0.48x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1825
+1.13R$113.33(+1.13%)
T2 hit @ 0.185
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.1745
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open JUP on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 93.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.8, returned 15.67%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. SMA CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 23.4, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1745, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
JUP Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. JUP cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
JUP
Price0.18
Timestamp1776861375236
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.56,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.18,
    "middle": 0.17,
    "lower": 0.17,
    "width": 8.34
  },
  "sma20": 0.17,
  "sma50": 0.17,
  "sma200": 0.16,
  "ema12": 0.17,
  "ema26": 0.17,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 88.33,
    "d": 91.33
  },
  "adx14": 23.4,
  "obv": -2354907.3614699994
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1776861375235,
    "price": 0.17827374,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 1.3
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.18,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.18,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 19.67,
        "d": 58.39
      },
      "adx14": 38.55,
      "obv": -805756.3829100009
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1776861375235,
    "price": 0.17827374,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.05,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 9.28
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.18,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.41,
        "d": 92.39
      },
      "adx14": 32.12,
      "obv": 261228.12381999946
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1776861375236,
    "price": 0.17827374,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 8.34
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.16,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 88.33,
        "d": 91.33
      },
      "adx14": 23.4,
      "obv": -2354907.3614699994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1776861375236,
    "price": 0.17827374,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.18,
        "middle": 0.17,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 17.02
      },
      "sma20": 0.17,
      "sma50": 0.16,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.17,
      "ema26": 0.17,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 63.65,
        "d": 49.21
      },
      "adx14": 24.98,
      "obv": -2898911.7628000015
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest4647407.17
Price0.18
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.95
Leverage3
Stop loss0.17
Take profit0.19
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.10
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for JUP; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked JUP mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.8
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.90
Reasons
  • SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.8
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked JUP mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score29.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1783
Funding rate
-0.0026%
Open interest
$4.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See JUP chart with overlay More thesesAll JUP theses