Thesis · thesis_moa25x56_43k0pn

NEAR

longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 41d ago · 2026-04-22T12:58:27Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

+0.00%

peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%

R:R

1.8:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.00%.

Closed +0.00% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$1.4116

Entry high

$1.4224

Target 1

$1.4471

Target 2

$1.4656

Stop loss

$1.39

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross

RSI 14

66.2

Bullish

ADX 14

26.2

Trending

ATR 14

0.1600

5.56% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 2.91

Lower 2.12

inside

SMA stack

202.52

502.49

2001.86

TA Workspace · NEAR

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

NEAR · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $2.9644 · max 10x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 10x)

Trade plan

Position size

3,703.7037 NEAR

$5.25K

Leverage

0.52x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.80

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 1.4471

+1.11R$111.48(+1.11%)

T2 hit @ 1.4656

+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)

Stop hit @ 1.39

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open NEAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h structure leans constructive.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
1d ADX confirms trend strength.
Candidate quality is 48.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 11.08%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 78.6.

Bear case

ADX is only near 15.1, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
The stop band sits near $1.3900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

NEAR Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. NEAR cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

NEAR

Price1.42

Timestamp1776861392149

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 59.58,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.42,
    "middle": 1.37,
    "lower": 1.32,
    "width": 7.32
  },
  "sma20": 1.37,
  "sma50": 1.39,
  "sma200": 1.3,
  "ema12": 1.39,
  "ema26": 1.38,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 86.17,
    "d": 92.01
  },
  "adx14": 15.13,
  "obv": 912940.5563414602
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776861392148,
    "price": 1.417,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.43,
        "middle": 1.42,
        "lower": 1.41,
        "width": 1.15
      },
      "sma20": 1.42,
      "sma50": 1.41,
      "sma200": 1.38,
      "ema12": 1.42,
      "ema26": 1.42,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 18.75,
        "d": 62.66
      },
      "adx14": 43.43,
      "obv": 188780.77645012006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776861392149,
    "price": 1.417,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.44,
        "middle": 1.39,
        "lower": 1.35,
        "width": 6.12
      },
      "sma20": 1.39,
      "sma50": 1.38,
      "sma200": 1.38,
      "ema12": 1.41,
      "ema26": 1.4,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.19,
        "d": 88.41
      },
      "adx14": 29.44,
      "obv": -344121.5214327704
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776861392149,
    "price": 1.417,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.42,
        "middle": 1.37,
        "lower": 1.32,
        "width": 7.32
      },
      "sma20": 1.37,
      "sma50": 1.39,
      "sma200": 1.3,
      "ema12": 1.39,
      "ema26": 1.38,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.17,
        "d": 92.01
      },
      "adx14": 15.13,
      "obv": 912940.5563414602
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776861392149,
    "price": 1.417,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.47,
        "middle": 1.35,
        "lower": 1.22,
        "width": 18.77
      },
      "sma20": 1.35,
      "sma50": 1.3,
      "sma200": 1.65,
      "ema12": 1.37,
      "ema26": 1.34,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80,
        "d": 69.6
      },
      "adx14": 29.72,
      "obv": -4068660.4922453766
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest29071552.56

Price1.42

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss1.39

Take profit1.47

Risk:Reward

1.8:1

Max drawdown %1.91

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for NEAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 16.9

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score78.60

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence70.30

Reasons

RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 16.9

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 78.6.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-3.10

Note

Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score19

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

fragile

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$1.417

Funding rate

0.0013%

Open interest

$29.1M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

fragile

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See NEAR chart with overlay More theses All NEAR theses