Thesis · thesis_moa3r15z_xxgxhx

LDO

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 41d ago · 2026-04-22T13:43:19Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction

68/100

Bull / Bear

76/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.00%

peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.41%.

Max adverse excursion hit -0.41% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.3909

Entry high

$0.3917

Target 1

$0.3932

Target 2

$0.3944

Stop loss

$0.3897

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

44.1

Bearish

ADX 14

20.8

Weak trend

ATR 14

0.0100

3.20% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.3400

Lower 0.3000

inside

SMA stack

200.3200

500.3200

2000.3600

TA Workspace · LDO

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LDO · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.312270 · max 5x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 5x)

Trade plan

Position size

62,500 LDO

$24.46K

Leverage

2.45x

≤ 5x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

$0.311300

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.94

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.3932

+1.19R$118.75(+1.19%)

T2 hit @ 0.3944

+1.94R$193.75(+1.94%)

Stop hit @ 0.3897

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open LDO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
Candidate quality is 65.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 26.6, returned 27.81%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI TREND REENTRY is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 52.0.
Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is fragile, so the desk should keep conviction and sizing tighter than normal.

Bear case

ADX is near 27.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.3897, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

LDO Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. LDO cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

LDO

Price0.39

Timestamp1776864557143

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 54.47,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.4,
    "middle": 0.38,
    "lower": 0.35,
    "width": 13.7
  },
  "sma20": 0.38,
  "sma50": 0.39,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.38,
  "ema26": 0.38,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 75.89,
    "d": 73.93
  },
  "adx14": 27.6,
  "obv": 1634345.1407902003
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776864557141,
    "price": 0.39129162,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.39,
        "lower": 0.38,
        "width": 1.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.39,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.38,
      "ema12": 0.39,
      "ema26": 0.39,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 97.22,
        "d": 94.31
      },
      "adx14": 10.15,
      "obv": -42275.774717529916
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776864557142,
    "price": 0.39129162,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.5,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.4,
        "middle": 0.39,
        "lower": 0.37,
        "width": 6.65
      },
      "sma20": 0.39,
      "sma50": 0.38,
      "sma200": 0.39,
      "ema12": 0.39,
      "ema26": 0.39,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.43,
        "d": 41.39
      },
      "adx14": 24.91,
      "obv": 67669.26551824012
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776864557142,
    "price": 0.39129162,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.4,
        "middle": 0.38,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 13.7
      },
      "sma20": 0.38,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.38,
      "ema26": 0.38,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.89,
        "d": 73.93
      },
      "adx14": 27.6,
      "obv": 1634345.1407902003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776864557143,
    "price": 0.39129162,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.43,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.28,
        "width": 42.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.55,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.98,
        "d": 51.42
      },
      "adx14": 28.77,
      "obv": -14052207.660004811
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate-0.00

Open Interest5899205.83

Price0.39

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss0.39

Take profit0.39

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %0.40

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for LDO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction76

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction76

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming
overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
replay remains supportive with score 26.6
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

FredAI policy

State

size_down

Score52

Conviction Adjustment-4

Risk Adjustment-2

Confidence53.70

Reasons

RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming
overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
replay remains supportive with score 26.6
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

Note

FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_TREND_REENTRY is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 52.0.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score-2.40

Note

Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score15.70

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

fragile

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.3913

Funding rate

-0.0023%

Open interest

$5.9M

Macro regime

balanced_range_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

balanced_range_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset

FredAI policy

size_down

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

fragile

Desk posture

provisional

Brain mode

fast

See LDO chart with overlay More theses All LDO theses