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Thesis · thesis_moa8j95n_qqh2od
APE

APE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 41d ago · 2026-04-22T15:56:47Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.11%.

  • Closed -0.11% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1036
Entry high
$0.1048
Target 1
$0.1088
Target 2
$0.1117
Stop loss
$0.1004
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
55.7
Bullish
ADX 14
27.6
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
6.72% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1500
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1400
2000.1500
TA Workspace · APE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

APE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.148510 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,315.7895 APE
$2.74K
Leverage
0.27x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.97
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1088
+1.21R$121.05(+1.21%)
T2 hit @ 0.1117
+1.97R$197.37(+1.97%)
Stop hit @ 0.1004
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open APE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 123.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 24.7, returned 17.84%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 98.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 41.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1004, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
APE Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. APE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
APE
Price0.10
Timestamp1776873252183
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.59,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.11,
    "middle": 0.1,
    "lower": 0.1,
    "width": 5.14
  },
  "sma20": 0.1,
  "sma50": 0.1,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.1,
  "ema26": 0.1,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 54.79,
    "d": 62.71
  },
  "adx14": 41.16,
  "obv": 525354.1134912096
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776873252181,
    "price": 0.10418026,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 3.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 55.73,
        "d": 43.69
      },
      "adx14": 13.26,
      "obv": 178316.97976436
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776873252181,
    "price": 0.10418026,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 6.94
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 54.79,
        "d": 50.15
      },
      "adx14": 16.31,
      "obv": -527692.41568574
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776873252182,
    "price": 0.10418026,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.1,
        "width": 5.14
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 54.79,
        "d": 62.71
      },
      "adx14": 41.16,
      "obv": 525354.1134912096
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "APE",
    "timestamp": 1776873252183,
    "price": 0.10418026,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.9,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 33.47
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.1,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.16,
        "d": 42
      },
      "adx14": 31.26,
      "obv": -22457211.68618855
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1685004.68
Price0.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.20
Leverage2
Stop loss0.10
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.60
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for APE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.7
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score98
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.7
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 98.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-0.40
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score59.80
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1042
Funding rate
-0.0164%
Open interest
$1.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See APE chart with overlay More thesesAll APE theses