Thesis · thesis_moaiirhm_9is71o

CRV

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 41d ago · 2026-04-22T20:36:15Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.00%

peak -0.00% · MAE -0.00%

R:R

1.8:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.47%.

Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
Max adverse excursion hit -0.47% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.2301

Entry high

$0.2305

Target 1

$0.2313

Target 2

$0.2320

Stop loss

$0.2294

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

46.1

Neutral

ADX 14

31.1

Trending

ATR 14

0.0100

4.81% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.2200

Lower 0.2000

inside

SMA stack

200.2100

500.2100

2000.2400

TA Workspace · CRV

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CRV · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.208000 · max 10x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 10x)

Trade plan

Position size

111,111.1111 CRV

$25.59K

Leverage

2.56x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

$0.185300

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.89

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.2313

+1.11R$111.11(+1.11%)

T2 hit @ 0.232

+1.89R$188.89(+1.89%)

Stop hit @ 0.2294

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open CRV on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h structure leans constructive.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
Candidate quality is 93.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 16.0, returned 9.79%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 89.4.

Bear case

ADX is only near 16.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
The stop band sits near $0.2294, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

defensive

Final thesis

CRV Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. CRV cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

CRV

Price0.23

Timestamp1776889763692

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 48.59,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.24,
    "middle": 0.23,
    "lower": 0.22,
    "width": 7.12
  },
  "sma20": 0.23,
  "sma50": 0.23,
  "sma200": 0.22,
  "ema12": 0.23,
  "ema26": 0.23,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 37.32,
    "d": 58.92
  },
  "adx14": 16.8,
  "obv": -3723637.067696957
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776889763691,
    "price": 0.2303,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 26.57,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 3.39
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.24,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 19.4,
        "d": 22.9
      },
      "adx14": 25.97,
      "obv": -1310731.0669724792
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776889763691,
    "price": 0.2303,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.62,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.24,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 3.92
      },
      "sma20": 0.24,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.23,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 12.75,
        "d": 12.04
      },
      "adx14": 26.66,
      "obv": -2919845.0834809733
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776889763692,
    "price": 0.2303,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.23,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 7.12
      },
      "sma20": 0.23,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.22,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.23,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 37.32,
        "d": 58.92
      },
      "adx14": 16.8,
      "obv": -3723637.067696957
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CRV",
    "timestamp": 1776889763692,
    "price": 0.2303,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.43,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 15.4
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.23,
      "sma200": 0.36,
      "ema12": 0.23,
      "ema26": 0.22,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.22,
        "d": 63.63
      },
      "adx14": 12.93,
      "obv": -133793404.58472902
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest6870217.32

Price0.23

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss0.23

Take profit0.23

Risk:Reward

1.8:1

Max drawdown %0.40

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for CRV; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
replay remains supportive with score 16.0
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score89.40

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence84.70

Reasons

RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
replay remains supportive with score 16.0
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 89.4.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-6.80

Note

Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score29.90

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.2303

Funding rate

0.0100%

Open interest

$6.9M

Macro regime

risk-on_range_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

risk-on_range_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See CRV chart with overlay More theses All CRV theses