EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_moap069t_qohjdt
INJ

INJ

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 86d ago · 2026-04-22T23:37:50Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.55%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.55% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.2977
Entry high
$3.3043
Target 1
$3.3157
Target 2
$3.3248
Stop loss
$3.2878
INJ · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
5.32564.79194.25823.72453.19085.1197/13 18:007/15 00:007/16 06:007/17 12:007/18 18:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
56.1
Bullish
ADX 14
23.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.1200
2.34% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 5.25
Lower 4.86
inside
SMA stack
205.05
504.97
2004.87
TA Workspace · INJ
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

INJ · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $5.1525 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
7,575.7576 INJ
$25.01K
Leverage
2.50x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$2.6410
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 3.3157
+1.11R$111.36(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 3.3248
+1.80R$180.30(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 3.2878
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open INJ on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 84.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 15.1, returned 6.79%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 92.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 21.5, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $3.2878, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
INJ Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. INJ cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
INJ
Price3.30
Timestamp1776900565486
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.44,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 3.38,
    "middle": 3.29,
    "lower": 3.2,
    "width": 5.36
  },
  "sma20": 3.29,
  "sma50": 3.27,
  "sma200": 3.01,
  "ema12": 3.31,
  "ema26": 3.29,
  "atr14": 0.06,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 53.55,
    "d": 75.18
  },
  "adx14": 21.54,
  "obv": -99294.72635531006
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776900565484,
    "price": 3.301,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 34.09,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.37,
        "middle": 3.33,
        "lower": 3.29,
        "width": 2.25
      },
      "sma20": 3.33,
      "sma50": 3.34,
      "sma200": 3.3,
      "ema12": 3.32,
      "ema26": 3.33,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 14,
        "d": 9.21
      },
      "adx14": 26.5,
      "obv": -34366.039253129995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776900565485,
    "price": 3.301,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.21,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.38,
        "middle": 3.34,
        "lower": 3.3,
        "width": 2.32
      },
      "sma20": 3.34,
      "sma50": 3.3,
      "sma200": 3.27,
      "ema12": 3.33,
      "ema26": 3.32,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.61,
        "d": 17.95
      },
      "adx14": 22.51,
      "obv": 2998.693380289995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776900565485,
    "price": 3.301,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.44,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.38,
        "middle": 3.29,
        "lower": 3.2,
        "width": 5.36
      },
      "sma20": 3.29,
      "sma50": 3.27,
      "sma200": 3.01,
      "ema12": 3.31,
      "ema26": 3.29,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 53.55,
        "d": 75.18
      },
      "adx14": 21.54,
      "obv": -99294.72635531006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776900565486,
    "price": 3.301,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.08,
        "signal": 0.06,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.46,
        "middle": 3.07,
        "lower": 2.68,
        "width": 25.16
      },
      "sma20": 3.07,
      "sma50": 3.02,
      "sma200": 5.04,
      "ema12": 3.19,
      "ema26": 3.11,
      "atr14": 0.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 68.16,
        "d": 66.57
      },
      "adx14": 17.1,
      "obv": -2394544.973649337
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1493606.13
Price3.30
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss3.29
Take profit3.32
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for INJ; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score92.30
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence83.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 92.3.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.10
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score37.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.301
Funding rate
-0.0120%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
risk-on_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
risk-on_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See INJ chart with overlay More thesesAll INJ theses