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Thesis · thesis_moapcxz0_vm3356
CC

CC

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 41d ago · 2026-04-22T23:47:45Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.03%.

  • Closed -1.03% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1518
Entry high
$0.1527
Target 1
$0.1547
Target 2
$0.1563
Stop loss
$0.1500
CC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.15940.1560.15250.1490.14550.15435/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · noneMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
51.9
Neutral
ADX 14
19.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1500
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1600
2000.1500
TA Workspace · CC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.153980 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
44,444.4444 CC
$6.77K
Leverage
0.68x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1547
+1.09R$108.89(+1.09%)
T2 hit @ 0.1563
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.15
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 87.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 21.9, returned 13.98%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 92.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 18.7, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
CC Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. CC cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CC
Price0.15
Timestamp1776900564613
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 52.34,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.16,
    "middle": 0.15,
    "lower": 0.15,
    "width": 7.72
  },
  "sma20": 0.15,
  "sma50": 0.15,
  "sma200": 0.15,
  "ema12": 0.15,
  "ema26": 0.15,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 40.1,
    "d": 45.6
  },
  "adx14": 18.72,
  "obv": 3286509.5514400024
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776900564612,
    "price": 0.15224,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 0.59
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.5,
        "d": 38.7
      },
      "adx14": 14.32,
      "obv": -5033934.522000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776900564613,
    "price": 0.15224,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 2.18
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 10.7,
        "d": 14.93
      },
      "adx14": 20.15,
      "obv": -5704660.838869995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776900564613,
    "price": 0.15224,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.34,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 7.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.15,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 40.1,
        "d": 45.6
      },
      "adx14": 18.72,
      "obv": 3286509.5514400024
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CC",
    "timestamp": 1776900564613,
    "price": 0.15224,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.16,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.14,
        "width": 13.05
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 46.1,
        "d": 53.87
      },
      "adx14": 29.47,
      "obv": -99020882.56177
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest5370078.32
Price0.15
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.15
Take profit0.16
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.47
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score92.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence82.50
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 92.4.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.20
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score33.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1522
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$5.4M
Macro regime
risk-on_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
risk-on_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See CC chart with overlay More thesesAll CC theses