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Thesis · thesis_moat2t2n_rj7d65
SPX

SPX

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 41d ago · 2026-04-23T01:32:14Z · expires 2026-04-26

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.91%.

  • Closed -0.91% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3844
Entry high
$0.3890
Target 1
$0.4053
Target 2
$0.4167
Stop loss
$0.3717
SPX · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.42310.38780.35240.31710.28170.34635/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
59.7
Bullish
ADX 14
19.0
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.89% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.3500
Lower 0.3100
inside
SMA stack
200.3300
500.3300
2000.3800
TA Workspace · SPX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SPX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.346330 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 SPX
$2.58K
Leverage
0.26x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.4053
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.4167
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.3717
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SPX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 150.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 30.4, returned 29.46%, win rate 54.5%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 26.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3717, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable.

Final thesis
SPX Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable. SPX cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SPX
Price0.39
Timestamp1776907762451
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 65.49,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.4,
    "middle": 0.35,
    "lower": 0.3,
    "width": 30.23
  },
  "sma20": 0.35,
  "sma50": 0.35,
  "sma200": 0.3,
  "ema12": 0.37,
  "ema26": 0.36,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 76.21,
    "d": 81.63
  },
  "adx14": 26.02,
  "obv": 2802586.6259700004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776907762449,
    "price": 0.3867,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.46,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.4,
        "middle": 0.39,
        "lower": 0.38,
        "width": 4.52
      },
      "sma20": 0.39,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.36,
      "ema12": 0.39,
      "ema26": 0.39,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 32.42,
        "d": 45.66
      },
      "adx14": 19.21,
      "obv": 1296743.3121399996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776907762450,
    "price": 0.3867,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.4,
        "middle": 0.39,
        "lower": 0.37,
        "width": 8.57
      },
      "sma20": 0.39,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.39,
      "ema26": 0.38,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.06,
        "d": 48.82
      },
      "adx14": 36.71,
      "obv": -99603.64122000049
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776907762451,
    "price": 0.3867,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.4,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.3,
        "width": 30.23
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.21,
        "d": 81.63
      },
      "adx14": 26.02,
      "obv": 2802586.6259700004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776907762451,
    "price": 0.3867,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.26,
        "width": 42.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.53,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.09,
        "d": 77.3
      },
      "adx14": 21.19,
      "obv": -86938869.87228996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest4121224.62
Price0.39
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.06
Leverage2
Stop loss0.37
Take profit0.42
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.88
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SPX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 30.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence94.60
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 30.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
rewarding
Score2.60
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score70.70
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3867
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$4.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See SPX chart with overlay More thesesAll SPX theses