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Thesis · thesis_moavhciu_vkr29u
SUI

SUI

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 86d ago · 2026-04-23T02:39:37Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.16%.

  • Closed +0.16% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9322
Entry high
$0.9382
Target 1
$0.9187
Target 2
$0.9086
Stop loss
$0.9500
SUI · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.96210.89550.82880.76220.69550.74327/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
51.2
Neutral
ADX 14
10.9
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0100
1.35% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.7600
Lower 0.7300
inside
SMA stack
200.7400
500.7400
2000.7300
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.741760 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,756.7568 SUI
$6.32K
Leverage
0.63x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.9187
+1.11R$111.49(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.9086
+1.80R$179.73(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.95
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 11.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.9500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 89.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 14.9, returned 12.68%, win rate 66.7%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 99.4.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SUI Short: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. SUI cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SUI
Price0.94
Timestamp1776911363667
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 42.01,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.97,
    "middle": 0.95,
    "lower": 0.92,
    "width": 5.33
  },
  "sma20": 0.95,
  "sma50": 0.96,
  "sma200": 0.92,
  "ema12": 0.95,
  "ema26": 0.95,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 17.1,
    "d": 39.03
  },
  "adx14": 11.81,
  "obv": -3002924.344459996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "strong_bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776911363665,
    "price": 0.9352,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.96,
        "middle": 0.95,
        "lower": 0.93,
        "width": 3.16
      },
      "sma20": 0.95,
      "sma50": 0.96,
      "sma200": 0.95,
      "ema12": 0.94,
      "ema26": 0.95,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 17.23,
        "d": 34.16
      },
      "adx14": 50.75,
      "obv": 1018443.2664499991
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776911363666,
    "price": 0.9352,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 31.75,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.98,
        "middle": 0.96,
        "lower": 0.94,
        "width": 4.71
      },
      "sma20": 0.96,
      "sma50": 0.95,
      "sma200": 0.96,
      "ema12": 0.95,
      "ema26": 0.96,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 9.05,
        "d": 21.56
      },
      "adx14": 23.81,
      "obv": 2493390.0008700006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776911363667,
    "price": 0.9352,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.97,
        "middle": 0.95,
        "lower": 0.92,
        "width": 5.33
      },
      "sma20": 0.95,
      "sma50": 0.96,
      "sma200": 0.92,
      "ema12": 0.95,
      "ema26": 0.95,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 17.1,
        "d": 39.03
      },
      "adx14": 11.81,
      "obv": -3002924.344459996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776911363667,
    "price": 0.9352,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.01,
        "middle": 0.94,
        "lower": 0.86,
        "width": 15.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.94,
      "sma50": 0.94,
      "sma200": 1.49,
      "ema12": 0.94,
      "ema26": 0.94,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.82,
        "d": 31.32
      },
      "adx14": 11.94,
      "obv": -243677177.2794199
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest15554692.80
Price0.94
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.95
Take profit0.91
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.58
Warnings
  • ADX 11.8 indicates weak trend.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 30.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score99.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84.50
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 30.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 99.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score55.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.9352
Funding rate
-0.0061%
Open interest
$15.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses