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Thesis · thesis_moaw0ot8_ml8w2a
YFI

YFI

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 41d ago · 2026-04-23T02:54:39Z · expires 2026-04-24

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.59%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.59% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$2,789.92
Entry high
$2,796.08
Target 1
$2,812.1
Target 2
$2,823.8
Stop loss
$2,777.6
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for YFI. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for YFI should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for YFI
TA Workspace · YFI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

YFI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66893.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6.4935 BTC
$18.14K
Leverage
1.81x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$2023.00
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2812.096
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 2823.8
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 2777.6
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 62.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 14.0, returned 7.00%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. SMA CROSS is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 48.5.
  • Historical lane Swing Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is fragile, so the desk should keep conviction and sizing tighter than normal.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 26.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $2777.6000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
YFI Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. YFI cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
YFI
Price2793
Timestamp1776912707249
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 52.72,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 34.65,
    "signal": 34.38,
    "histogram": 0.26
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 2910.55,
    "middle": 2777.6,
    "lower": 2644.65,
    "width": 9.57
  },
  "sma20": 2777.6,
  "sma50": 2730.82,
  "sma200": 2570.41,
  "ema12": 2811.45,
  "ema26": 2776.81,
  "atr14": 39.87,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 37.6,
    "d": 64
  },
  "adx14": 26.5,
  "obv": -19.091269500000028
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "YFI",
    "timestamp": 1776912707248,
    "price": 2793,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 28.96,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -15,
        "signal": -14.78,
        "histogram": -0.21
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2851.32,
        "middle": 2810.4,
        "lower": 2769.48,
        "width": 2.91
      },
      "sma20": 2810.4,
      "sma50": 2841.26,
      "sma200": 2811.24,
      "ema12": 2800,
      "ema26": 2815,
      "atr14": 4.24,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 27.66,
        "d": 27.28
      },
      "adx14": 38.93,
      "obv": 6.775719279999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "YFI",
    "timestamp": 1776912707248,
    "price": 2793,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -1.43,
        "signal": 8.82,
        "histogram": -10.25
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2890.22,
        "middle": 2841.8,
        "lower": 2793.38,
        "width": 3.41
      },
      "sma20": 2841.8,
      "sma50": 2811.34,
      "sma200": 2726.33,
      "ema12": 2825.44,
      "ema26": 2826.87,
      "atr14": 15.2,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 14.29,
        "d": 18.32
      },
      "adx14": 24.8,
      "obv": 9.997262380000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "YFI",
    "timestamp": 1776912707249,
    "price": 2793,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 34.65,
        "signal": 34.38,
        "histogram": 0.26
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2910.55,
        "middle": 2777.6,
        "lower": 2644.65,
        "width": 9.57
      },
      "sma20": 2777.6,
      "sma50": 2730.82,
      "sma200": 2570.41,
      "ema12": 2811.45,
      "ema26": 2776.81,
      "atr14": 39.87,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 37.6,
        "d": 64
      },
      "adx14": 26.5,
      "obv": -19.091269500000028
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "YFI",
    "timestamp": 1776912707249,
    "price": 2793,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 61.49,
        "signal": 36.74,
        "histogram": 24.76
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2871.46,
        "middle": 2625.5,
        "lower": 2379.54,
        "width": 18.74
      },
      "sma20": 2625.5,
      "sma50": 2586.72,
      "sma200": 3476.63,
      "ema12": 2710.11,
      "ema26": 2648.62,
      "atr14": 97.81,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.31,
        "d": 83.15
      },
      "adx14": 19.96,
      "obv": -667.6945963900009
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Price2793
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss2777.60
Take profit2823.80
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.55
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for YFI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • SMA_CROSS is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score48.50
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence51.20
Reasons
  • SMA_CROSS is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. SMA_CROSS is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 48.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1.40
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score26.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$2,793
Funding rate
0.0038%
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See YFI chart with overlay More thesesAll YFI theses