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Thesis · thesis_moba9531_ad2tur
GRASS

GRASS

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 41d ago · 2026-04-23T09:32:19Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.02% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.53%.

  • Closed +0.53% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4073
Entry high
$0.4123
Target 1
$0.4470
Target 2
$0.4698
Stop loss
$0.3798
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.54660.50290.45930.41560.37190.47565/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
49.5
Neutral
ADX 14
24.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0300
6.32% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.5000
Lower 0.4400
inside
SMA stack
200.4700
500.4900
2000.4000
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.474870 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 GRASS
$1.37K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.447
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.4698
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.3798
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 118.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 35.0, returned 31.68%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 38.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3798, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
GRASS Long: constructive command with guarded risk

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming. GRASS cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.41
Timestamp1776936563605
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 62.7,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.45,
    "middle": 0.37,
    "lower": 0.3,
    "width": 39.01
  },
  "sma20": 0.37,
  "sma50": 0.36,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.4,
  "ema26": 0.38,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 87.25,
    "d": 91.63
  },
  "adx14": 38.83,
  "obv": -163733.67431000003
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776936563603,
    "price": 0.4098,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.42,
        "lower": 0.41,
        "width": 3.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.42,
      "sma50": 0.41,
      "sma200": 0.39,
      "ema12": 0.41,
      "ema26": 0.41,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 8.94,
        "d": 28.46
      },
      "adx14": 12.93,
      "obv": 129910.18699000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776936563604,
    "price": 0.4098,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.41,
        "lower": 0.4,
        "width": 5.58
      },
      "sma20": 0.41,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.36,
      "ema12": 0.41,
      "ema26": 0.4,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.71,
        "d": 72.35
      },
      "adx14": 29.22,
      "obv": -34589.29192999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776936563604,
    "price": 0.4098,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.45,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.3,
        "width": 39.01
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.4,
      "ema26": 0.38,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.25,
        "d": 91.63
      },
      "adx14": 38.83,
      "obv": -163733.67431000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776936563605,
    "price": 0.4098,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.41,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 40.82
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 89.83,
        "d": 90.78
      },
      "adx14": 27.14,
      "obv": 490867.7597499999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1976926.29
Price0.41
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.38
Take profit0.47
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.32
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked GRASS mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.40
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 12.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score2.10
Note
Desk recently blocked GRASS mostly because: FredAI overfit penalty is too high (34.0).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score44.80
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4098
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$2.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses