Generated 40d ago · 2026-04-23T16:10:11Z · expires 2026-04-30
Thesis invalidated — closed -4.85%.
- Conviction was modest (55/100), so position sizing should have kept the loss contained.
- Was up +5.85% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
- Max adverse excursion hit -4.85% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
- Planned at 1.6:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.
Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.
Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".
- Price ($0.0613) is breaking above the Bollinger Upper Band ($0.06), signaling a volatility expansion breakout with strong bullish momentum.
- ADX at 35.97 confirms a strong, established bullish trend, and price is trading above all key moving averages (SMA 20/50/200 at $0.06).
- RSI at 62.07 has room to run before overbought (70+), and Stochastic K (66.03) above D (64.59) shows intact bullish crossover momentum.
- Price is trading ABOVE the Bollinger Upper Band ($0.06), a classic overbought signal that often precedes a mean reversion pullback to the SMA(20) at $0.06.
- Risk Officer flagged ATR as $0, making volatility-adjusted position sizing and stop validation impossible; trade is unquantifiable without this data.
- FredAI memory marks RSI_PULLBACK strategy as 'Avoid' in the exact regime (disinflation_range_bull_lowvol) with elevated overfit penalty (24.0) and weak confidence (43.6).
See the bull vs bear showdown
Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.
- Market Scout: Scans the universe, ranks candidates, and frames the live market regime before the desk debates a trade.
- Technical Analyst: Reads trend, momentum, structure, and timeframe alignment from the live TA stack.
- Bull Analyst: Builds the strongest possible long thesis from the data without hiding the trade-offs.
- Bear Analyst: Builds the strongest possible short or caution case so the desk does not confuse momentum with edge.
- Risk Officer: Challenges trade quality, invalidation, and position discipline before capital is committed.
- FredAI Policy: Applies replay memory, failure history, and regime policy so the desk learns instead of repeating old mistakes.
- CIO / ThesisAI: Makes the final publish-or-block call and turns the desk verdict into a clean execution thesis.
The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.
SEI is breaking above its Bollinger Upper Band ($0.06) with a confirmed bullish trend (ADX 35.97) and room on RSI (62.07), supporting a long bias. However, the Risk Officer's rejection due to ATR=0 and FredAI's 'Avoid' grade on the RSI_PULLBACK strategy in this exact regime force a conservative stance. Entry is proposed on a retest of the breakout zone ($0.0600-$0.0615), with a tight stop below the SMA cluster at $0.0580. The trade requires immediate follow-through; failure to hold above $0.06 invalidates the setup.
Desk decision packet
SEI desk packet: LONG bias, 5-10 days horizon. SEI shows bullish trend and neutral momentum across the live TA stack. Risk is not cleared with a high rating. ATR is $0 — cannot calculate volatility-adjusted position size or validate stop distance. Trade is unquantifiable.
Bull vs bear conflict: Price at $0.0613 is breaking above the Bollinger upper band at $0.06 — a classic volatility expansion breakout signal with strong bullish momentum / Price at $0.0613 is trading ABOVE the Bollinger Upper Band at $0.06, a classic overbought signal that often precedes a mean reversion pullback to the SMA(20) at $0.06.
Technical analyst memo
Key Levels
{
"resistance": [
"0.0620 (psychological level)",
"0.0650 (next round number)"
],
"support": [
"0.0600 (SMA cluster & Bollinger Middle Band)",
"0.0590 (Bollinger Lower Band)"
]
}Signals
[
{
"signal": "Bollinger Band Breakout",
"type": "Bullish",
"strength": "Strong",
"detail": "Price at 0.0613 is above the upper band at 0.06, indicating a volatility expansion breakout."
},
{
"signal": "Strong Trend Confirmation",
"type": "Bullish",
"strength": "Strong",
"detail": "ADX at 35.97 and price above all major SMAs confirm a robust uptrend."
},
{
"signal": "Neutral Momentum",
"type": "Neutral",
"strength": "Moderate",
"detail": "RSI at 62.07 and Stochastic at 66.03 show bullish momentum but are not yet overbought, allowing for further upside."
},
{
"signal": "Conflicting Candlestick Patterns",
"type": "Bearish",
"strength": "Weak",
"detail": "Bearish Harami and Marubozu patterns are noted but are minor counter-signals within a strong uptrend."
}
]Sentiment analyst memo
Analysis
{
"asset": "SEI",
"sentiment_score": 55,
"sentiment_label": "Neutral",
"contrarian_signal": "No clear contrarian setup",
"key_drivers": [
"Funding rate is positive but minimal (0.00005887%), indicating a slightly bullish crowd but not at extreme levels. The magnitude is far below the significant threshold of 0.03%, suggesting weak conviction.",
"Open Interest is $2.26M, but without 24h change or long/short ratio data, it's impossible to assess new money flow or positioning shifts.",
"Fear & Greed Index is unavailable, removing a key gauge of crowd psychology extremes.",
"Social signals and liquidation data are missing, limiting insight into retail sentiment and forced positioning.",
"Macro regime is disinflationary with a bullish stance (score 49), providing a supportive backdrop for risk assets, but this is a broad market factor, not SEI-specific."
],
"contrarian_analysis": "No actionable contrarian signal exists. The funding rate is positive but negligible, not indicating extreme bullishness that would warrant a contrarian sell. Conversely, the absence of extreme fear (no F&G data) means there's no contrarian buy signal. The data is too sparse to identify a crowded trade or a sentiment extreme. The macro backdrop is constructive but doesn't create a SEI-specific opportunity."
}Bull analyst memo
- Price at $0.0613 is breaking above the Bollinger upper band at $0.06 — a classic volatility expansion breakout signal with strong bullish momentum
- ADX at 35.97 confirms a strong, established trend is in place, and the trend signal is explicitly labeled 'bullish' — this is not a weak move
- RSI at 62.07 has significant room to run before overbought (70+), meaning buyers can push another 12-15% before exhaustion signals appear
- Price is trading above ALL key moving averages (SMA 20/50/200 all at $0.06) — this is textbook bullish alignment with dynamic support beneath
- Stochastic K at 66.03 above D at 64.59 shows bullish crossover momentum intact with no bearish divergence yet forming
- Funding rate at 0.00005887% is positive but minimal — indicates slight long bias without overcrowding, leaving room for further long accumulation without immediate squeeze risk
Bear analyst memo
- Price at $0.0613 is trading ABOVE the Bollinger Upper Band at $0.06, a classic overbought signal that often precedes a mean reversion pullback to the SMA(20) at $0.06.
- RSI(14) at 62.07 and Stochastic K at 66.03 show momentum is fading from recent highs, with the Stochastic K/D lines converging, signaling a potential bearish crossover.
- ADX at 35.97 confirms a strong trend, but the bullish trend is now extended and vulnerable to a sharp correction as price has broken above the upper volatility band.
- The Desk Bias is LONG at 5.39, creating a crowded long trade. A minor pullback could trigger stop-losses and accelerate downside pressure.
- Funding rate at 0.00005887% is positive but minimal, indicating weak bullish conviction among leveraged traders, making the rally fragile and susceptible to a reversal.
- The golden cross (SMA50 > SMA200) is already priced in, and with price stretched above all moving averages, the risk of a reversion to the mean (SMA20 at $0.06) is high.
Risk officer memo
- ATR is $0 — cannot calculate volatility-adjusted position size or validate stop distance. Trade is unquantifiable.
- Entry at $0.0613 is ABOVE Bollinger Upper Band ($0.06) — classic overbought mean-reversion risk. Stop must be below support.
- Risk:Reward of 1.2:1 (based on conservative TP at $0.065 and SL at $0.058) is below the required 1.5:1 minimum.
- Stochastic K at 66.03 shows momentum but is not extreme; however, price extension above BB upper increases pullback probability.
- Desk Bias LONG at 5.39 indicates crowded positioning — vulnerable to stop-loss cascades on minor pullback.
Directional decision
Calibrated debate
- Desk prior reinforced long by 7.5.
- Historical lane quality forces a more cautious debate balance.
- TA composite leans bullish.
- Multi-timeframe TA is aligned on the long side.
- Trend structure supports the bull case.
- Exact-regime replay supports the long case.
FredAI policy
- RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
- overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
- exact-regime replay is available
- replay remains supportive with score 19.6