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Thesis · thesis_mobofy7c_ou4w8i
SEI

SEI

longLOSS 3-7d

Generated 40d ago · 2026-04-23T16:10:11Z · expires 2026-04-30

Conviction
55/100
Bull / Bear
65/45
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.05%
peak +0.06% · MAE -0.05%
R:R
1.6:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -4.85%.

  • Conviction was modest (55/100), so position sizing should have kept the loss contained.
  • Was up +5.85% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -4.85% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.6:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0600
Entry high
$0.0615
Target 1
$0.0650
Target 2
$0.0680
Stop loss
$0.0580
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
45.7
Neutral
ADX 14
18.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0700
Lower 0.0600
inside
SMA stack
200.0700
500.0700
2000.0600
PatternsBullish Engulfing
TA Workspace · SEI

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SEI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.064614 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
36,363.6364 SEI
$2.21K
Leverage
0.22x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.64
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.065
+1.55R$154.55(+1.55%)
T2 hit @ 0.068
+2.64R$263.64(+2.64%)
Stop hit @ 0.058
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SEI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price ($0.0613) is breaking above the Bollinger Upper Band ($0.06), signaling a volatility expansion breakout with strong bullish momentum.
  • ADX at 35.97 confirms a strong, established bullish trend, and price is trading above all key moving averages (SMA 20/50/200 at $0.06).
  • RSI at 62.07 has room to run before overbought (70+), and Stochastic K (66.03) above D (64.59) shows intact bullish crossover momentum.
Bear case
  • Price is trading ABOVE the Bollinger Upper Band ($0.06), a classic overbought signal that often precedes a mean reversion pullback to the SMA(20) at $0.06.
  • Risk Officer flagged ATR as $0, making volatility-adjusted position sizing and stop validation impossible; trade is unquantifiable without this data.
  • FredAI memory marks RSI_PULLBACK strategy as 'Avoid' in the exact regime (disinflation_range_bull_lowvol) with elevated overfit penalty (24.0) and weak confidence (43.6).
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Desk roster
  • Market Scout: Scans the universe, ranks candidates, and frames the live market regime before the desk debates a trade.
  • Technical Analyst: Reads trend, momentum, structure, and timeframe alignment from the live TA stack.
  • Bull Analyst: Builds the strongest possible long thesis from the data without hiding the trade-offs.
  • Bear Analyst: Builds the strongest possible short or caution case so the desk does not confuse momentum with edge.
  • Risk Officer: Challenges trade quality, invalidation, and position discipline before capital is committed.
  • FredAI Policy: Applies replay memory, failure history, and regime policy so the desk learns instead of repeating old mistakes.
  • CIO / ThesisAI: Makes the final publish-or-block call and turns the desk verdict into a clean execution thesis.
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SEI Long: Bollinger Breakout with Strong Trend, but ATR Data Gap Caps Conviction

SEI is breaking above its Bollinger Upper Band ($0.06) with a confirmed bullish trend (ADX 35.97) and room on RSI (62.07), supporting a long bias. However, the Risk Officer's rejection due to ATR=0 and FredAI's 'Avoid' grade on the RSI_PULLBACK strategy in this exact regime force a conservative stance. Entry is proposed on a retest of the breakout zone ($0.0600-$0.0615), with a tight stop below the SMA cluster at $0.0580. The trade requires immediate follow-through; failure to hold above $0.06 invalidates the setup.

Desk decision packet
Brief

SEI desk packet: LONG bias, 5-10 days horizon. SEI shows bullish trend and neutral momentum across the live TA stack. Risk is not cleared with a high rating. ATR is $0 — cannot calculate volatility-adjusted position size or validate stop distance. Trade is unquantifiable.

Conflict summary

Bull vs bear conflict: Price at $0.0613 is breaking above the Bollinger upper band at $0.06 — a classic volatility expansion breakout signal with strong bullish momentum / Price at $0.0613 is trading ABOVE the Bollinger Upper Band at $0.06, a classic overbought signal that often precedes a mean reversion pullback to the SMA(20) at $0.06.

Technical analyst memo
Analysis
The 4-hour chart for SEI shows a bullish structure with price trading above all key moving averages (SMA 20/50/200 at 0.06). The ADX at 35.97 confirms a strong trend is in place. However, momentum is neutral with RSI at 62.07 and Stochastic at 66.03, indicating the asset is not yet overbought but has room to run. The most significant signal is the price's position relative to the Bollinger Bands; trading at 0.0613 against an upper band of 0.06 suggests a breakout above volatility resistance, which is a strong bullish signal. The Bearish Harami and Marubozu patterns noted are contradictory and less reliable in a strong uptrend, serving as minor caution flags for a potential short-term pullback. The undefined ML prediction provides no additional directional bias.
Key Levels
{
  "resistance": [
    "0.0620 (psychological level)",
    "0.0650 (next round number)"
  ],
  "support": [
    "0.0600 (SMA cluster & Bollinger Middle Band)",
    "0.0590 (Bollinger Lower Band)"
  ]
}
Signals
[
  {
    "signal": "Bollinger Band Breakout",
    "type": "Bullish",
    "strength": "Strong",
    "detail": "Price at 0.0613 is above the upper band at 0.06, indicating a volatility expansion breakout."
  },
  {
    "signal": "Strong Trend Confirmation",
    "type": "Bullish",
    "strength": "Strong",
    "detail": "ADX at 35.97 and price above all major SMAs confirm a robust uptrend."
  },
  {
    "signal": "Neutral Momentum",
    "type": "Neutral",
    "strength": "Moderate",
    "detail": "RSI at 62.07 and Stochastic at 66.03 show bullish momentum but are not yet overbought, allowing for further upside."
  },
  {
    "signal": "Conflicting Candlestick Patterns",
    "type": "Bearish",
    "strength": "Weak",
    "detail": "Bearish Harami and Marubozu patterns are noted but are minor counter-signals within a strong uptrend."
  }
]
Overall Score8
Score Rationale
The score of 8 reflects a strong bullish setup. The primary drivers are the confirmed uptrend (ADX, SMA alignment) and the decisive breakout above the Bollinger Band upper band. The neutral momentum readings (RSI, Stochastic) support the case for continued upside without immediate overbought exhaustion. The minor bearish candlestick patterns and the lack of a MACD cross prevent a perfect 10 score.
Sentiment analyst memo
Analysis
{
  "asset": "SEI",
  "sentiment_score": 55,
  "sentiment_label": "Neutral",
  "contrarian_signal": "No clear contrarian setup",
  "key_drivers": [
    "Funding rate is positive but minimal (0.00005887%), indicating a slightly bullish crowd but not at extreme levels. The magnitude is far below the significant threshold of 0.03%, suggesting weak conviction.",
    "Open Interest is $2.26M, but without 24h change or long/short ratio data, it's impossible to assess new money flow or positioning shifts.",
    "Fear & Greed Index is unavailable, removing a key gauge of crowd psychology extremes.",
    "Social signals and liquidation data are missing, limiting insight into retail sentiment and forced positioning.",
    "Macro regime is disinflationary with a bullish stance (score 49), providing a supportive backdrop for risk assets, but this is a broad market factor, not SEI-specific."
  ],
  "contrarian_analysis": "No actionable contrarian signal exists. The funding rate is positive but negligible, not indicating extreme bullishness that would warrant a contrarian sell. Conversely, the absence of extreme fear (no F&G data) means there's no contrarian buy signal. The data is too sparse to identify a crowded trade or a sentiment extreme. The macro backdrop is constructive but doesn't create a SEI-specific opportunity."
}
Bull analyst memo
Conviction78
Arguments
  • Price at $0.0613 is breaking above the Bollinger upper band at $0.06 — a classic volatility expansion breakout signal with strong bullish momentum
  • ADX at 35.97 confirms a strong, established trend is in place, and the trend signal is explicitly labeled 'bullish' — this is not a weak move
  • RSI at 62.07 has significant room to run before overbought (70+), meaning buyers can push another 12-15% before exhaustion signals appear
  • Price is trading above ALL key moving averages (SMA 20/50/200 all at $0.06) — this is textbook bullish alignment with dynamic support beneath
  • Stochastic K at 66.03 above D at 64.59 shows bullish crossover momentum intact with no bearish divergence yet forming
  • Funding rate at 0.00005887% is positive but minimal — indicates slight long bias without overcrowding, leaving room for further long accumulation without immediate squeeze risk
Entry zone
$0.0600 - $0.0613 (current breakout level, retest of Bollinger upper band as support)
Target
$0.0680 - $0.0720 (15-18% move based on ATR expansion from breakout + RSI room to 70-75 zone)
Catalyst
Bollinger band breakout with strong ADX trend confirmation — momentum traders will pile in as price sustains above $0.06 upper band
Timeframe
5-10 days
Bear analyst memo
Conviction75
Arguments
  • Price at $0.0613 is trading ABOVE the Bollinger Upper Band at $0.06, a classic overbought signal that often precedes a mean reversion pullback to the SMA(20) at $0.06.
  • RSI(14) at 62.07 and Stochastic K at 66.03 show momentum is fading from recent highs, with the Stochastic K/D lines converging, signaling a potential bearish crossover.
  • ADX at 35.97 confirms a strong trend, but the bullish trend is now extended and vulnerable to a sharp correction as price has broken above the upper volatility band.
  • The Desk Bias is LONG at 5.39, creating a crowded long trade. A minor pullback could trigger stop-losses and accelerate downside pressure.
  • Funding rate at 0.00005887% is positive but minimal, indicating weak bullish conviction among leveraged traders, making the rally fragile and susceptible to a reversal.
  • The golden cross (SMA50 > SMA200) is already priced in, and with price stretched above all moving averages, the risk of a reversion to the mean (SMA20 at $0.06) is high.
Entry zone
$0.0610 - $0.0615 (current price, near Bollinger Upper Band resistance)
Target
$0.0580 - $0.0560 (Bollinger Mid Band at $0.06 breakdown, targeting Lower Band at $0.05)
Catalyst
Failure to hold above the Bollinger Upper Band at $0.06, combined with a bearish Stochastic crossover, could trigger a rapid pullback to the $0.058 support zone.
Timeframe
2-5 days
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %0
Leverage1
Stop loss0.06
Take profit0.07
Risk:Reward
1.2:1
Max drawdown %5.30
Warnings
  • ATR is $0 — cannot calculate volatility-adjusted position size or validate stop distance. Trade is unquantifiable.
  • Entry at $0.0613 is ABOVE Bollinger Upper Band ($0.06) — classic overbought mean-reversion risk. Stop must be below support.
  • Risk:Reward of 1.2:1 (based on conservative TP at $0.065 and SL at $0.058) is below the required 1.5:1 minimum.
  • Stochastic K at 66.03 shows momentum but is not extreme; however, price extension above BB upper increases pullback probability.
  • Desk Bias LONG at 5.39 indicates crowded positioning — vulnerable to stop-loss cascades on minor pullback.
Adjustments
REJECT trade until ATR is available for proper position sizing. If proceeding, set stop loss at $0.058 (below SMA cluster at $0.06) and take profit at $0.065 to achieve ~1.5:1 R:R. Reduce position size to 1-2% of portfolio due to overbought conditions and lack of volatility data.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread35.70
Dominant Conviction99.20
Threshold6
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction99.20
Bear Conviction63.50
Notes
  • Desk prior reinforced long by 7.5.
  • Historical lane quality forces a more cautious debate balance.
  • TA composite leans bullish.
  • Multi-timeframe TA is aligned on the long side.
  • Trend structure supports the bull case.
  • Exact-regime replay supports the long case.
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score49.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence47.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.6
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 49.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-4.20
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score22.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0613
Funding rate
0.0059%
Open interest
$2.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
full
See SEI chart with overlay More thesesAll SEI theses