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Thesis · thesis_mobogwgv_sw3hsq
MET

MET

longWIN 1-3d

Generated 40d ago · 2026-04-23T16:10:50Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
65/100
Bull / Bear
65/45
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.02%
peak +0.02% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
2.1:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +1.63%.

  • High conviction (65/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +2.16% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.1:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1700
Entry high
$0.1760
Target 1
$0.1900
Target 2
$0.2000
Stop loss
$0.1650
MET · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.20380.18280.16170.14070.11970.13425/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
56.5
Bullish
ADX 14
12.4
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1400
Lower 0.1200
inside
SMA stack
200.1300
500.1300
2000.1500
TA Workspace · MET

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

MET · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.134250 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
12,500 MET
$2.16K
Leverage
0.22x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 3.38
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.19
+2.13R$212.50(+2.13%)
T2 hit @ 0.2
+3.38R$337.50(+3.38%)
Stop hit @ 0.165
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open MET on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price ($0.1759) is above all key MAs (SMA20: $0.17, SMA50: $0.16, SMA200: $0.14) with a confirmed golden cross, indicating a strong bullish structure.
  • ADX at 51.98 confirms a powerful trend in place, and the trend direction is explicitly bullish.
  • Stochastic (K=27.71) is in oversold territory while price holds above support, setting up a potential bounce within the trend.
Bear case
  • Price is stalling at the critical $0.18 EMA12 resistance, a level that has capped recent upside attempts.
  • MACD histogram is flat at 0.00, indicating fading bullish momentum and a potential bearish crossover.
  • The exact-regime replay tag is 'disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol', which historically favors bearish continuation after a stall at resistance.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Desk roster
  • Market Scout: Scans the universe, ranks candidates, and frames the live market regime before the desk debates a trade.
  • Technical Analyst: Reads trend, momentum, structure, and timeframe alignment from the live TA stack.
  • Bull Analyst: Builds the strongest possible long thesis from the data without hiding the trade-offs.
  • Bear Analyst: Builds the strongest possible short or caution case so the desk does not confuse momentum with edge.
  • Risk Officer: Challenges trade quality, invalidation, and position discipline before capital is committed.
  • FredAI Policy: Applies replay memory, failure history, and regime policy so the desk learns instead of repeating old mistakes.
  • CIO / ThesisAI: Makes the final publish-or-block call and turns the desk verdict into a clean execution thesis.
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
MET Long: Golden Cross & Oversold Stochastic Setup at Key Support

MET presents a long setup based on a confirmed golden cross and strong ADX trend, with price consolidating above key moving averages. Entry is targeted on a pullback to the $0.170-$0.176 support confluence (SMA20/Bollinger Mid). The primary risk is a rejection at the $0.18 EMA12 resistance; a break below $0.165 invalidates the bullish thesis. The exact-regime replay tag is bearish, which caps conviction, but the live technical structure and FredAI policy support a measured long.

Desk decision packet
Brief

MET desk packet: LONG bias, 5-10 days horizon. MET shows bullish trend and neutral momentum across the live TA stack. Risk is conditionally cleared with a medium rating. Price is stalling at $0.18 EMA12 resistance — a failure here could trigger a reversal.

Conflict summary

Bull vs bear conflict: Price ($0.1759) is trading above ALL key moving averages (SMA20: $0.17, SMA50: $0.16, SMA200: $0.14) with a confirmed golden cross (SMA50 > SMA200) — textbook bullish structure. / Price at $0.1759 is stalling at the critical $0.18 EMA 12 resistance, a level that has capped upside attempts. Failure here confirms a rejection pattern.

Technical analyst memo
Analysis
{
  "timeframe": "Daily",
  "key_levels": {
    "resistance": [
      "0.20 (Bollinger Upper Band)",
      "0.18 (EMA 12)"
    ],
    "support": [
      "0.17 (SMA 20, Bollinger Middle)",
      "0.16 (SMA 50)",
      "0.13 (Bollinger Lower Band)"
    ]
  },
  "signals": [
    {
      "signal": "Strong Bullish Trend Structure",
      "detail": "Price ($0.1759) is above all key moving averages (SMA20: 0.17, SMA50: 0.16, SMA200: 0.14). A confirmed golden cross (SMA50 > SMA200) is in place. ADX at 51.98 indicates a very strong trend.",
      "impact": "High"
    },
    {
      "signal": "Neutral Momentum with Pullback Risk",
      "detail": "RSI at 59.87 is neutral, not overbought. However, the Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern suggests potential selling pressure at recent highs. MACD is flat (Histogram: 0), indicating momentum is stalling.",
      "impact": "Medium"
    },
    {
      "signal": "High Volatility & Consolidation",
      "detail": "Bollinger Band Width at 41.67% is high, and price is inside the bands. This, combined with the doji, suggests a period of consolidation or a potential pullback within the strong uptrend.",
      "impact": "Medium"
    },
    {
      "signal": "Stochastic Oversold in Uptrend",
      "detail": "Stochastic %K at 27.71 is in oversold territory. In a strong uptrend (ADX > 50), this often signals a potential bounce or continuation rather than a reversal.",
      "impact": "Low-Medium"
    }
  ],
  "overall_score": 7,
  "score_rationale": "The score reflects a strong bullish trend structure (price above all MAs, golden cross, high ADX) which is the dominant factor. The neutral RSI and high volatility with a doji pattern introduce consolidation risk, preventing a higher score. The undefined ML prediction is not factored in as it provides no directional bias."
}
Bull analyst memo
Conviction82
Arguments
  • Price ($0.1759) is trading above ALL key moving averages (SMA20: $0.17, SMA50: $0.16, SMA200: $0.14) with a confirmed golden cross (SMA50 > SMA200) — textbook bullish structure.
  • ADX at 51.98 signals an extremely strong trend in place, and the trend direction is explicitly labeled 'bullish' — this is not a weak or fading move.
  • Stochastic (K=27.71, D=27.72) is in oversold territory while price remains above support — a classic divergence setup where momentum is coiled for a bounce.
  • Bollinger Middle Band ($0.17) and SMA20 ($0.17) are converging as immediate support, creating a high-probability bounce zone just below current price.
  • Desk bias is LONG at 5.35 with a Candidate Score of 120.91 — institutional flow is aligned with the bullish thesis.
  • ATR at $0.01 with price near $0.176 means volatility is compressed relative to the trend — a breakout move toward Bollinger Upper ($0.20) offers a favorable 14%+ reward with tight risk.
Entry zone
$0.170 - $0.176 (SMA20/Bollinger Mid confluence zone)
Target
$0.20 - $0.21 (Bollinger Upper Band breakout, +14-19% upside)
Catalyst
Stochastic oversold bounce + golden cross continuation + ADX-confirmed strong trend resumption toward Bollinger Upper Band
Timeframe
5-10 days
Bear analyst memo
Conviction65
Arguments
  • Price at $0.1759 is stalling at the critical $0.18 EMA 12 resistance, a level that has capped upside attempts. Failure here confirms a rejection pattern.
  • RSI at 59.87 is in neutral territory but shows fading momentum after a recent run, failing to reach overbought (>70) levels, suggesting the bullish impulse is exhausted.
  • MACD histogram at 0.00 with MACD and Signal lines flat at 0.01 indicates a complete loss of bullish momentum and a potential bearish crossover imminent.
  • Stochastic K/D at 27.71/27.72 is in oversold territory, but in a strong trend (ADX 51.98), this often precedes a continuation breakdown rather than a bounce, especially with price below the $0.18 resistance.
  • The disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol replay regime is an exact match, historically favoring bearish continuation after a stall at resistance, contradicting the desk's LONG bias.
  • Funding rate at 0.00005 is slightly positive, indicating longs are paying shorts, which can incentivize a short squeeze or liquidation cascade if price breaks down from resistance.
Entry zone
$0.178 - $0.182 (near EMA 12 resistance and upper Bollinger band approach)
Target
$0.160 - $0.155 (SMA 50 support breakdown, targeting Bollinger lower band at $0.13)
Catalyst
A decisive rejection and close below $0.17 (SMA 20/Bollinger middle) would confirm trend failure and trigger stops, accelerating the move toward $0.16.
Timeframe
5-10 days
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3
Leverage1
Stop loss0.17
Take profit0.20
Risk:Reward
2.2:1
Max drawdown %3
Warnings
  • Price is stalling at $0.18 EMA12 resistance — a failure here could trigger a reversal.
  • MACD histogram is flat at 0.00, indicating fading momentum despite strong ADX.
  • Stochastic is oversold (K=27.71) but in a strong trend, this can precede continuation breakdown rather than bounce.
  • Funding rate is slightly positive (0.00005), meaning longs are paying shorts — risk of liquidation cascade if price drops.
Adjustments
Move stop loss to $0.17 (SMA20/Bollinger middle) if price breaks above $0.185 with conviction. Reduce position size to 2% if price fails to break $0.18 within 12 hours.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread50.80
Dominant Conviction100
Threshold6
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction100
Bear Conviction49.20
Notes
  • Probe prior strongly reinforced long by 11.8.
  • FredAI policy promoted the long case.
  • Historical lane quality forces a more cautious debate balance.
  • Multi-timeframe TA is aligned on the long side.
  • Trend structure supports the bull case.
  • Exact-regime replay supports the long case.
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score78.10
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence75.20
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.3
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 78.1.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently published MET; rotation cooldown is active so newer candidates can surface.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score40.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1759
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$2.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
ATR_BREAKOUT · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
full
See MET chart with overlay More thesesAll MET theses