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Thesis · thesis_mobz6te2_6svmhp
BLUR

BLUR

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 40d ago · 2026-04-23T21:10:21Z · expires 2026-04-26

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.43%.

  • Closed -0.43% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0315
Entry high
$0.0318
Target 1
$0.0337
Target 2
$0.0349
Stop loss
$0.0300
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
41.5
Bearish
ADX 14
19.4
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0200
Lower 0.0200
inside
SMA stack
200.0200
500.0200
2000.0200
TA Workspace · BLUR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BLUR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.020058 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
60,606.0606 BLUR
$1.92K
Leverage
0.19x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.97
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0337
+1.24R$124.24(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.0349
+1.97R$196.97(+1.97%)
Stop hit @ 0.03
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BLUR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 165.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (latest asset) scored 34.3, returned 41.68%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI TREND REENTRY is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 90.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 58.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
BLUR Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. BLUR cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BLUR
Price0.03
Timestamp1776978566299
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.01,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.04,
    "middle": 0.03,
    "lower": 0.03,
    "width": 16.42
  },
  "sma20": 0.03,
  "sma50": 0.03,
  "sma200": 0.02,
  "ema12": 0.03,
  "ema26": 0.03,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 21.12,
    "d": 15.99
  },
  "adx14": 58.77,
  "obv": 38983620.0382
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1776978566297,
    "price": 0.03164,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.07,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.03,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 2.51
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 74.13
      },
      "adx14": 14.1,
      "obv": 83161.67227999996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1776978566298,
    "price": 0.03164,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.03,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 11.18
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.18,
        "d": 35.57
      },
      "adx14": 15.12,
      "obv": 8846508.210369993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1776978566299,
    "price": 0.03164,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 16.42
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.02,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 21.12,
        "d": 15.99
      },
      "adx14": 58.77,
      "obv": 38983620.0382
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BLUR",
    "timestamp": 1776978566299,
    "price": 0.03164,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.03,
        "middle": 0.02,
        "lower": 0.01,
        "width": 85.63
      },
      "sma20": 0.02,
      "sma50": 0.02,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.23,
        "d": 62.24
      },
      "adx14": 60.99,
      "obv": 59337160.320319995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest1819597.27
Price0.03
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.41
Leverage2
Stop loss0.03
Take profit0.03
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %5.18
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BLUR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked BLUR mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score90.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence82.60
Reasons
  • RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_TREND_REENTRY is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 90.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked BLUR mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score57.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0316
Funding rate
-0.0103%
Open interest
$1.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See BLUR chart with overlay More thesesAll BLUR theses