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Thesis · thesis_moc5llc2_c8gn0n
EUL

EUL

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 40d ago · 2026-04-24T00:09:48Z · expires 2026-04-25

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.04%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.04%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -4.15%.

  • Closed -4.15% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.6461
Entry high
$1.6659
Target 1
$1.8048
Target 2
$1.896
Stop loss
$1.536
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for EUL. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for EUL should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for EUL
TA Workspace · EUL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

EUL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66855.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
833.3333 BTC
$1.38K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.8048
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.896
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1.536
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 175.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 58.2, returned 59.76%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 87.1.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 47.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1.5360, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
EUL Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. EUL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
EUL
Price1.66
Timestamp1776989360180
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 71.23,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.08,
    "signal": 0.06,
    "histogram": 0.02
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.65,
    "middle": 1.47,
    "lower": 1.28,
    "width": 25.31
  },
  "sma20": 1.47,
  "sma50": 1.38,
  "sma200": 1.03,
  "ema12": 1.53,
  "ema26": 1.45,
  "atr14": 0.08,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 96.49,
    "d": 95
  },
  "adx14": 47.42,
  "obv": 468086.0557465797
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "EUL",
    "timestamp": 1776989360179,
    "price": 1.656,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.67,
        "middle": 1.61,
        "lower": 1.56,
        "width": 7.07
      },
      "sma20": 1.61,
      "sma50": 1.55,
      "sma200": 1.48,
      "ema12": 1.63,
      "ema26": 1.6,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.48,
        "d": 84.13
      },
      "adx14": 41.6,
      "obv": -85770.17546228998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "EUL",
    "timestamp": 1776989360179,
    "price": 1.656,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.05,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.67,
        "middle": 1.54,
        "lower": 1.42,
        "width": 16.09
      },
      "sma20": 1.54,
      "sma50": 1.49,
      "sma200": 1.37,
      "ema12": 1.59,
      "ema26": 1.54,
      "atr14": 0.04,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.82,
        "d": 94.67
      },
      "adx14": 46.49,
      "obv": 164761.92778361985
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "EUL",
    "timestamp": 1776989360180,
    "price": 1.656,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.08,
        "signal": 0.06,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.65,
        "middle": 1.47,
        "lower": 1.28,
        "width": 25.31
      },
      "sma20": 1.47,
      "sma50": 1.38,
      "sma200": 1.03,
      "ema12": 1.53,
      "ema26": 1.45,
      "atr14": 0.08,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.49,
        "d": 95
      },
      "adx14": 47.42,
      "obv": 468086.0557465797
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "EUL",
    "timestamp": 1776989360180,
    "price": 1.656,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.39,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.16,
        "signal": 0.12,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.69,
        "middle": 1.21,
        "lower": 0.73,
        "width": 79.36
      },
      "sma20": 1.21,
      "sma50": 1.02,
      "sma200": 3.15,
      "ema12": 1.38,
      "ema26": 1.22,
      "atr14": 0.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 78.09,
        "d": 69.96
      },
      "adx14": 46.69,
      "obv": 619676.7206518597
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Price1.66
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss1.54
Take profit1.90
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.25
Warnings
  • RSI 71.2 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for EUL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 58.2
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score87.10
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence79.70
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 58.2
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 87.1.
Live-learning brain
State
rewarding
Score5.40
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score52.10
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.656
Funding rate
0.0050%
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See EUL chart with overlay More thesesAll EUL theses