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Thesis · thesis_mocuv728_17ys51
PYTH

PYTH

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 40d ago · 2026-04-24T11:57:06Z · expires 2026-04-26

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak -0.03% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -3.41%.

  • Closed -3.41% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0527
Entry high
$0.0534
Target 1
$0.0568
Target 2
$0.0592
Stop loss
$0.0500
PYTH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.06030.05430.04840.04250.03650.03995/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
49.0
Neutral
ADX 14
13.8
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0400
Lower 0.0400
inside
SMA stack
200.0400
500.0400
2000.0500
TA Workspace · PYTH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PYTH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.040068 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
32,786.8852 PYTH
$1.74K
Leverage
0.17x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.02
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0568
+1.23R$122.95(+1.23%)
T2 hit @ 0.0592
+2.02R$201.64(+2.02%)
Stop hit @ 0.05
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PYTH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 131.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (exact regime) scored 23.6, returned 19.92%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 32.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
PYTH Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. PYTH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PYTH
Price0.05
Timestamp1777031823383
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 72.29,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.05,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 19.95
  },
  "sma20": 0.05,
  "sma50": 0.05,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.05,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 80.44,
    "d": 67.72
  },
  "adx14": 32.11,
  "obv": 11053686.58044
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1777031823380,
    "price": 0.05305,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 73.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 4.87
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 100
      },
      "adx14": 19.78,
      "obv": 1892600.86857
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1777031823381,
    "price": 0.05305,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 10.51
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.97,
        "d": 38.31
      },
      "adx14": 40.31,
      "obv": 2081217.7724700004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1777031823382,
    "price": 0.05305,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.29,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 19.95
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.44,
        "d": 67.72
      },
      "adx14": 32.11,
      "obv": 11053686.58044
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PYTH",
    "timestamp": 1777031823383,
    "price": 0.05305,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 28.43
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.07,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.1,
        "d": 75.47
      },
      "adx14": 23.67,
      "obv": -43216279.946410045
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1370945.18
Price0.05
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.13
Leverage2
Stop loss0.05
Take profit0.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %5.75
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 72.3 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PYTH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked PYTH mostly because: Recent desk history has been too weak for this setup lane, so synthesis is deferred until the lane improves.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.50
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked PYTH mostly because: Recent desk history has been too weak for this setup lane, so synthesis is deferred until the lane improves.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score57.40
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0531
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$1.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PYTH chart with overlay More thesesAll PYTH theses