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Thesis · thesis_mofnnwrs_op8jag
SCRT

SCRT

longFLAT 3-7d

Generated 83d ago · 2026-04-26T10:59:32Z · expires 2026-05-03

Conviction
62/100
Bull / Bear
65/45
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.04% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.44%.

  • Closed -0.44% at conviction 62/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1150
Entry high
$0.1180
Target 1
$0.1250
Target 2
$0.1350
Stop loss
$0.1100
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for SCRT. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for SCRT should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for SCRT
TA Workspace · SCRT

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SCRT · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $64611.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
15,384.6154 BTC
$1.79K
Leverage
0.18x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.85
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.125
+1.31R$130.77(+1.31%)
T2 hit @ 0.135
+2.85R$284.62(+2.85%)
Stop hit @ 0.11
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price above all key MAs (SMA20/50/200) confirms bullish trend structure with dynamic support at $0.11
  • RSI at 66.45 is elevated but not overbought, with room to push toward 70-75 before exhaustion
  • ADX at 21.42 indicates a developing trend, historically delivering stronger moves as momentum builds
  • Negative funding rate (-0.00005179%) suggests shorts paying longs, creating potential for squeeze
  • Exact-regime replay (disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol) shows RSI_PULLBACK strategy with 100% win rate and 16.41% return
Bear case
  • Price pressing against upper Bollinger Band ($0.12), a classic resistance zone where momentum often exhausts
  • Stochastic oscillator deeply overbought (%K=72.81, %D=76.88), signaling high probability of short-term pullback
  • ATR is $0, making volatility-adjusted position sizing and stop validation impossible
  • Risk:Reward ratio of 1.2:1 from desk debate is below required 1.5:1 minimum
  • Desk bias heavily LONG (5.73) creates crowded trade setup vulnerable to stop-loss cascades
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Desk roster
  • Market Scout: Scans the universe, ranks candidates, and frames the live market regime before the desk debates a trade.
  • Technical Analyst: Reads trend, momentum, structure, and timeframe alignment from the live TA stack.
  • Bull Analyst: Builds the strongest possible long thesis from the data without hiding the trade-offs.
  • Bear Analyst: Builds the strongest possible short or caution case so the desk does not confuse momentum with edge.
  • Risk Officer: Challenges trade quality, invalidation, and position discipline before capital is committed.
  • FredAI Policy: Applies replay memory, failure history, and regime policy so the desk learns instead of repeating old mistakes.
  • CIO / ThesisAI: Makes the final publish-or-block call and turns the desk verdict into a clean execution thesis.
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SCRT Long: Bullish Trend Structure + Developing Momentum in Disinflation Regime

SCRT shows a bullish trend structure with price above all key moving averages and developing momentum (ADX 21.42). Entry on pullback to $0.1150-$0.1180 targets $0.1250 (conservative) and $0.1350 (aggressive) with stop at $0.1100 below SMA cluster. Risk is elevated due to missing ATR data and upper Bollinger Band resistance at $0.12—position sizing must be conservative. Exact-regime replay supports the long case with 100% win rate on RSI_PULLBACK strategy, but walk-forward stability is weak (46.9).

Desk decision packet
Brief

SCRT desk packet: LONG bias, 5-10 days horizon. SCRT shows bullish trend and neutral momentum across the live TA stack. Risk is not cleared with a high rating. ATR is $0 — cannot calculate volatility-adjusted position size or validate stop distance. Trade is unquantifiable.

Conflict summary

Bull vs bear conflict: Price at $0.11874 is trading above ALL key moving averages (SMA20=$0.11, SMA50=$0.11, SMA200=$0.09), confirming a strong bullish trend structure with dynamic support layers below / Price at $0.11874 is trading at the upper Bollinger Band ($0.12), a classic resistance zone where momentum often exhausts and mean-reversion begins.

Technical analyst memo
Analysis
SCRT is trading at $0.11874, above all key moving averages (SMA20, SMA50, SMA200), confirming a bullish trend structure. The price is above the upper Bollinger Band ($0.12), indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension. RSI at 66.45 is elevated but not yet overbought, suggesting room for continuation. Stochastic (%K: 72.81, %D: 76.88) is in overbought territory, signaling a potential short-term pullback. ADX at 21.42 indicates a developing trend. The MACD histogram at 0 suggests momentum is neutral, aligning with the 'neutral' momentum state. The 'golden_cross' SMA trend and price above all SMAs provide a strong bullish foundation.
Key_levels
{
  "resistance": [
    "0.12 (Upper Bollinger Band / immediate resistance)",
    "0.125 (psychological level, next target if momentum holds)"
  ],
  "support": [
    "0.11 (SMA20, SMA50, EMA12, EMA26, and Middle Bollinger Band - critical cluster)",
    "0.09 (SMA200 - major long-term support)"
  ]
}
Signals
  • Bullish Trend: Price above SMA20 (0.11), SMA50 (0.11), and SMA200 (0.09). Golden cross active.
  • Overbought Warning: Stochastic %K at 72.81 and price above upper Bollinger Band (0.12) suggest short-term pullback risk.
  • Momentum Neutral: RSI at 66.45 is strong but not extreme; MACD histogram at 0 shows stalled momentum.
  • Volatility High: Bollinger Band width at 9.8% indicates expansion, supporting trend continuation or reversal.
Overall_score7
Score_rationale
Score of 7 reflects a bullish setup (price above all key SMAs, golden cross, RSI supportive) but tempered by overbought short-term signals (Stochastic, price above upper BB) and neutral MACD. The strong trend structure justifies a bullish bias, but the immediate risk of a pullback to the $0.11 support cluster prevents a higher score.
Sentiment analyst memo
Analysis
{
  "asset": "SCRT",
  "timestamp": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z",
  "sentiment_score": 55,
  "sentiment_label": "Neutral",
  "contrarian_signal": "Weak Bullish",
  "key_drivers": [
    {
      "driver": "Funding Rate",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "detail": "Current funding rate is -0.00005179%, which is negative but extremely small in magnitude (well below the 0.03% significance threshold). This indicates shorts are paying longs, but the cost is negligible, suggesting minimal bearish crowd conviction. The lack of a significant negative rate means there's no strong contrarian buy signal from funding alone."
    },
    {
      "driver": "Macro Regime",
      "weight": 0.3,
      "detail": "Macro state is 'Disinflation' with a bullish stance and score of 49. The summary describes a constructive backdrop for trend-following longs, which provides a supportive tailwind for risk assets like SCRT. This macro context leans positive but is not extreme."
    },
    {
      "driver": "Data Gaps",
      "weight": 0.3,
      "detail": "Critical sentiment indicators (Fear & Greed Index, Open Interest, Long/Short Ratio, Social Signals, Liquidations) are all unavailable (N/A). This severely limits a comprehensive crowd psychology assessment. Without these, we cannot identify extremes in fear/greed or shifts in positioning that often signal reversals."
    }
  ],
  "contrarian_analysis": "The available data presents a mixed picture. The negative funding rate is technically a contrarian bullish signal (shorts paying longs), but its magnitude is so small it's statistically insignificant. The macro backdrop is supportive but not at an extreme. The absence of Fear & Greed data is the biggest gap—we cannot assess if the market is in extreme fear (a potential buy) or extreme greed (a potential sell). Given the data limitations, the contrarian signal is weak. A true contrarian setup would require either: 1) A significantly negative funding rate (<-0.03%) combined with extreme Fear, or 2) A significantly positive funding rate (>0.03%) combined with extreme Greed. Neither condition is met."
}
Recommendation
Monitor for additional data. The current setup does not present a high-conviction contrarian opportunity. The slight negative funding rate combined with a supportive macro environment suggests a neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias, but position sizing should be conservative due to the lack of confirming sentiment data.
Bull analyst memo
Conviction78
Arguments
  • Price at $0.11874 is trading above ALL key moving averages (SMA20=$0.11, SMA50=$0.11, SMA200=$0.09), confirming a strong bullish trend structure with dynamic support layers below
  • RSI at 66.45 is elevated but NOT overbought — has room to push toward 70-75 before exhaustion, indicating momentum is building rather than peaking
  • Negative funding rate (-0.00005179) means shorts are paying longs — even small negative funding signals overcrowded short positioning vulnerable to squeeze on any upward push
  • ADX at 21.42 shows trend is DEVELOPING, not mature — early-stage trends historically deliver the strongest moves as momentum builds from this inflection point
  • Price pressing against upper Bollinger Band ($0.12) with strong trend confirmation — in trending markets, price rides the upper band as dynamic resistance becomes support
  • Desk bias LONG at 5.73 with Candidate Score 133.7 and 'ready' promotion state — institutional flow alignment supports the bullish thesis
Entry zone
$0.1150 - $0.1180 (pullback to SMA20/50 confluence zone at $0.11, or breakout retest of $0.12 upper band)
Target
$0.1350 - $0.1400 (measured move from trend development + upper band expansion projection)
Catalyst
ADX trend acceleration from 21→25+ combined with short squeeze on negative funding as price breaks and holds above $0.12 psychological resistance
Timeframe
5-10 days
Bear analyst memo
Conviction75
Arguments
  • Price at $0.11874 is trading at the upper Bollinger Band ($0.12), a classic resistance zone where momentum often exhausts and mean-reversion begins.
  • Stochastic oscillator is deeply overbought with %K at 72.81 and %D at 76.88, signaling a high probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation.
  • RSI at 66.45 is approaching overbought territory (>70), suggesting buying pressure is fading and a reversal is imminent.
  • ADX at 21.42 indicates a weak trend, meaning the current bullish move lacks strong conviction and is vulnerable to a breakdown.
  • The desk's LONG bias (5.73) creates a crowded trade setup; a minor pullback could trigger stop-losses and accelerate downside.
  • Price is above all moving averages (SMA20=$0.11, SMA50=$0.11, SMA200=$0.09), making it extended and susceptible to a pullback to the SMA20 support at $0.11.
Entry zone
$0.1190 - $0.1200 (at/just above upper Bollinger Band resistance)
Target
$0.1100 - $0.1050 (retest of SMA20/SMA50 cluster and potential breakdown)
Catalyst
Failure to hold above the upper Bollinger Band ($0.12) and a break below the SMA20 at $0.11 would confirm the pullback and target the SMA200 at $0.09.
Timeframe
3-5 days
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %0
Leverage1
Stop loss0.11
Take profit0.13
Risk:Reward
1.2:1
Max drawdown %0
Warnings
  • ATR is $0 — cannot calculate volatility-adjusted position size or validate stop distance. Trade is unquantifiable.
  • Risk:Reward ratio of 1.2:1 is below the required 1.5:1 minimum — unacceptable risk profile.
  • Stochastic %K=72.81 and %D=76.88 are elevated, signaling overbought conditions and high probability of short-term exhaustion.
  • Price is pressing against the upper Bollinger Band ($0.12), a classic resistance zone where momentum often exhausts.
  • ADX at 21.42 indicates a developing but still weak trend — vulnerable to breakdown.
  • Desk bias is heavily LONG (5.73) with Candidate Score 133.7, creating a crowded trade setup vulnerable to stop-loss cascades.
Adjustments
REJECT TRADE. ATR data is missing, making risk calculation impossible. If ATR becomes available, recalculate. For approval: require a confirmed break and close above $0.12 with increasing volume, a pullback to the $0.11 SMA20 support for a better entry, or a Risk:Reward ratio of at least 1.5:1 with a stop loss below $0.11.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread42.70
Dominant Conviction100
Threshold6
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction100
Bear Conviction57.30
Notes
  • Desk prior reinforced long by 8.0.
  • FredAI policy promoted the long case.
  • Historical lane quality forces a more cautious debate balance.
  • TA composite leans bullish.
  • Multi-timeframe TA is aligned on the long side.
  • Trend structure supports the bull case.
  • Exact-regime replay supports the long case.
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence89.80
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked SCRT mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score57.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1187
Funding rate
-0.0052%
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
full
See SCRT chart with overlay More thesesAll SCRT theses