EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mofrsqsp_22rukb
SCRT

SCRT

longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 37d ago · 2026-04-26T12:55:08Z · expires 2026-04-28

Conviction
62/100
Bull / Bear
65/45
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.1:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.20%.

  • Closed +0.20% at conviction 62/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1130
Entry high
$0.1170
Target 1
$0.1250
Target 2
$0.1320
Stop loss
$0.1080
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for SCRT. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for SCRT should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for SCRT
TA Workspace · SCRT

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SCRT · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66826.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
14,285.7143 BTC
$1.64K
Leverage
0.16x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.43
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.125
+1.43R$142.86(+1.43%)
T2 hit @ 0.132
+2.43R$242.86(+2.43%)
Stop hit @ 0.108
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • Price trading above all key MAs (SMA20/50/200) confirming bullish trend structure
  • RSI at 61.6 shows healthy momentum with room to run before overbought
  • Bullish Bollinger Band position with price above middle band and approaching upper band
  • ADX at 23.26 confirms developing trend above 20 threshold
  • Neutral funding rate (0.00001366%) indicates no crowding in longs
Bear case
  • Stochastic bearish crossover (%K 60.52 < %D 76.24) suggests near-term pullback risk
  • Price stalling at Bollinger upper band resistance ($0.12)
  • ADX at 23.26 indicates weak trend conviction vulnerable to reversal
  • Missing critical sentiment data (OI, Fear & Greed, social signals) limits conviction assessment
  • Desk historical edge negative (-0.7 across 70 closed theses)
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Desk roster
  • Market Scout: Scans the universe, ranks candidates, and frames the live market regime before the desk debates a trade.
  • Technical Analyst: Reads trend, momentum, structure, and timeframe alignment from the live TA stack.
  • Bull Analyst: Builds the strongest possible long thesis from the data without hiding the trade-offs.
  • Bear Analyst: Builds the strongest possible short or caution case so the desk does not confuse momentum with edge.
  • Risk Officer: Challenges trade quality, invalidation, and position discipline before capital is committed.
  • FredAI Policy: Applies replay memory, failure history, and regime policy so the desk learns instead of repeating old mistakes.
  • CIO / ThesisAI: Makes the final publish-or-block call and turns the desk verdict into a clean execution thesis.
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SCRT Long: Bullish Trend Structure with Pullback Entry Opportunity

SCRT shows bullish trend structure with price above all key MAs and healthy RSI momentum. Entry on pullback to $0.1130-$0.1170 targets $0.1250 (conservative) and $0.1320 (aggressive) with stop at $0.1080. Risk:Reward of 2.1:1 compensates for missing sentiment data and stochastic crossover warning. Replay evidence supports long bias with RSI_PULLBACK strategy showing 16.41% return and 100% win rate in similar regime.

Desk decision packet
Brief

SCRT desk packet: LONG bias, 5-10 days horizon. SCRT shows bullish trend and neutral momentum across the live TA stack. Risk is conditionally cleared with a medium rating. Deterministic risk override replaced an overly defensive model risk review for a monitored setup.

Conflict summary

Bull vs bear conflict: Price at $0.1168592 is trading above all key moving averages (SMA20: $0.11, SMA50: $0.11, SMA200: $0.09), confirming a strong bullish trend structure with dynamic support below. / Stochastic %K (60.52) is below %D (76.24), forming a bearish crossover signal that often precedes a pullback, especially with RSI at 61.6 showing fading upside momentum.

Technical analyst memo
Analysis
SCRT is trading at $0.1168592, positioned above its key moving averages (SMA20: $0.11, SMA50: $0.11, SMA200: $0.09), confirming a bullish trend structure. The price is inside the Bollinger Bands (Upper: $0.12, Middle: $0.11, Lower: $0.11), indicating consolidation within a high-volatility environment (Width: 10.29%). Momentum is neutral-to-slightly-bullish: RSI at 61.6 shows strength without being overbought, while the Stochastic %K (60.52) is below its %D (76.24), suggesting a potential short-term pullback or consolidation. The MACD is flat at zero, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. ADX at 23.26 suggests a developing trend. The Machine Learning prediction is undefined, providing no additional directional bias.
Key_levels
{
  "resistance": [
    {
      "level": 0.12,
      "source": "Bollinger Band Upper"
    }
  ],
  "support": [
    {
      "level": 0.11,
      "source": "SMA20 / SMA50 / Bollinger Band Middle"
    },
    {
      "level": 0.09,
      "source": "SMA200"
    }
  ]
}
Signals
[
  {
    "signal": "Bullish Trend Structure",
    "detail": "Price above all major SMAs (20, 50, 200) with a golden cross.",
    "impact": "high"
  },
  {
    "signal": "Neutral Momentum",
    "detail": "RSI at 61.6 is healthy but not overbought. Stochastic %K below %D suggests minor near-term weakness.",
    "impact": "medium"
  },
  {
    "signal": "Consolidation Phase",
    "detail": "Price inside Bollinger Bands with flat MACD indicates a pause or consolidation within the uptrend.",
    "impact": "medium"
  },
  {
    "signal": "High Volatility",
    "detail": "Bollinger Band width of 10.29% indicates elevated volatility, increasing the potential for a breakout.",
    "impact": "medium"
  }
]
Overall Score7
Score Rationale
The score of 7 reflects a bullish setup. The primary driver is the strong, confirmed uptrend (price above all SMAs, golden cross). The neutral momentum (RSI 61.6, flat MACD) and consolidation inside the Bollinger Bands prevent a higher score, indicating the trend is present but not currently accelerating. The high volatility suggests a breakout is possible, but direction is not yet confirmed by momentum.
Sentiment analyst memo
Analysis
{
  "asset": "SCRT",
  "timestamp": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z",
  "sentiment_score": 50,
  "confidence": 0.3,
  "regime": "neutral",
  "contrarian_signal": "hold",
  "key_drivers": [
    "funding_rate_neutral",
    "data_gaps",
    "macro_support"
  ],
  "details": {
    "funding_rate_analysis": {
      "current_rate": 0.00001366,
      "interpretation": "Extremely low positive funding rate (0.00001366%) indicates minimal cost for longs to hold positions. This is effectively neutral, showing no significant crowd bias in either direction. The rate is far below the 0.03% significance threshold, suggesting balanced positioning without crowding.",
      "contrarian_implication": "No contrarian opportunity from funding rates alone. The market is not showing extreme bullish or bearish crowding."
    },
    "open_interest_analysis": {
      "status": "data_unavailable",
      "interpretation": "Missing OI data prevents analysis of new money flows and leverage changes. This is a critical gap for assessing conviction behind price moves.",
      "contrarian_implication": "Cannot assess whether recent price action is supported by new capital inflows or merely short-term positioning."
    },
    "fear_greed_analysis": {
      "status": "data_unavailable",
      "interpretation": "Missing Fear & Greed Index prevents direct measurement of crowd psychology extremes. Without this, we cannot identify potential reversal zones based on emotional extremes.",
      "contrarian_implication": "Cannot apply classic contrarian framework of buying extreme fear or selling extreme greed."
    },
    "social_signals_analysis": {
      "status": "data_unavailable",
      "interpretation": "Missing social volume and sentiment data prevents analysis of retail crowd attention and narrative strength.",
      "contrarian_implication": "Cannot assess whether SCRT is experiencing unusual social hype or neglect that might signal contrarian opportunities."
    },
    "liquidations_analysis": {
      "status": "data_unavailable",
      "interpretation": "Missing liquidation data prevents analysis of forced selling events that often create short-term dislocations.",
      "contrarian_implication": "Cannot identify potential capitulation events or short squeezes from liquidation cascades."
    },
    "price_context": {
      "current_price": 0.1168592,
      "interpretation": "Price data available but without 24h/7d changes, we cannot assess momentum or recent performance context.",
      "contrarian_implication": "Cannot determine if price is at support/resistance levels or showing unusual moves."
    },
    "macro_context": {
      "regime": "disinflation",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "score": 49,
      "interpretation": "Macro backdrop is constructive for risk assets with cooling inflation without policy shocks. This provides tailwind for trend-following long positions in crypto assets.",
      "contrarian_implication": "Macro environment supports bullish positioning, but SCRT-specific sentiment data is needed to confirm alignment."
    }
  },
  "synthesis": "SCRT sentiment analysis is severely limited by missing data across multiple critical indicators (OI, Fear & Greed, social signals, liquidations). The only available sentiment indicator—funding rate—shows neutral positioning with no crowd extremes. The macro environment is supportive but SCRT-specific conviction cannot be assessed. With a sentiment score of 50 (neutral) and low confidence (0.3), the contrarian signal is 'hold' pending better data. Key missing pieces: 1) Fear & Greed extremes for reversal signals, 2) OI changes for conviction assessment, 3) Social metrics for crowd attention analysis.",
  "recommendations": [
    "Monitor for Fear & Greed Index extremes (below 20 or above 80) for contrarian entries/exits",
    "Track OI changes to confirm if price moves are supported by new capital",
    "Watch funding rate for moves above 0.03% magnitude indicating crowd crowding",
    "Integrate social volume spikes with price action for narrative confirmation"
  ]
}
Bull analyst memo
Conviction72
Arguments
  • Price at $0.1168592 is trading above all key moving averages (SMA20: $0.11, SMA50: $0.11, SMA200: $0.09), confirming a strong bullish trend structure with dynamic support below.
  • RSI at 61.6 shows healthy bullish momentum without being overbought, leaving significant room for further upside before reaching overbought territory (70+).
  • Bollinger Band structure is bullish: price is above the middle band ($0.11) and approaching the upper band ($0.12), indicating strong upward pressure within a 10.29% volatility environment.
  • Stochastic %K (60.52) is below %D (76.24), creating a potential bullish crossover setup as the faster line approaches the slower line from below.
  • ADX at 23.26 confirms a developing trend (above 20 threshold), with the trend signal explicitly labeled 'bullish' in the technical report.
  • Funding rate at 0.00001366 is effectively neutral, meaning longs can hold positions with minimal cost while shorts have no significant funding advantage to maintain bearish pressure.
Entry zone
$0.1150 - $0.1170 (current consolidation zone near Bollinger middle band)
Target
$0.1250 - $0.1300 (Bollinger upper band expansion + 10-12% upside from current levels)
Catalyst
Bullish trend continuation with Stochastic crossover potential + RSI momentum building toward overbought levels
Timeframe
5-10 days
Bear analyst memo
Conviction65
Arguments
  • Stochastic %K (60.52) is below %D (76.24), forming a bearish crossover signal that often precedes a pullback, especially with RSI at 61.6 showing fading upside momentum.
  • Price is stalling at the Bollinger Upper band resistance ($0.12), a classic rejection zone. The tight band width (10.29%) suggests a volatility squeeze is imminent, and the path of least resistance is often a breakdown from the upper band.
  • ADX at 23.26 indicates a weak trend. While the structure is 'bullish', the low ADX suggests the trend lacks conviction and is vulnerable to a sharp reversal, especially with neutral MACD momentum.
  • The desk's LONG bias (5.90) and the 'golden_cross' signal are contrarian red flags. With funding rate neutral (0.00001366) and no strong momentum, this looks like a crowded long setup prone to a liquidity flush.
  • Price is trading just above the SMA cluster ($0.11), which acts as a fragile support. A break below this level would trigger stop-losses and accelerate selling, as there is no strong support until the SMA(200) at $0.09.
Entry zone
$0.118 - $0.120 (at Bollinger Upper band rejection)
Target
$0.105 - $0.100 (toward SMA(200) and Bollinger Lower band breakdown)
Catalyst
A decisive close below the SMA cluster at $0.11 would invalidate the short-term bullish structure and trigger a cascade toward the $0.10 psychological level.
Timeframe
5-10 days
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.40
Leverage2
Stop loss0.11
Take profit0.12
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.21
Warnings
  • Deterministic risk override replaced an overly defensive model risk review for a monitored setup.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Adjustments
Desk is allowing a provisional publish using deterministic risk controls. Keep size conservative until follow-through confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread52.80
Dominant Conviction100
Threshold8
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction100
Bear Conviction47.20
Notes
  • Probe prior strongly reinforced long by 12.0.
  • FredAI policy promoted the long case.
  • Historical lane quality forces a more cautious debate balance.
  • TA composite leans bullish.
  • Multi-timeframe TA is aligned on the long side.
  • Trend structure supports the bull case.
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score85
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence80
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 85.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked SCRT mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score57.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1169
Funding rate
0.0014%
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
full
See SCRT chart with overlay More thesesAll SCRT theses