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Thesis · thesis_mov752m8_qapgq5
ZEREBRO

ZEREBRO

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 27d ago · 2026-05-07T08:00:32Z · expires 2026-05-09

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.07%
peak -0.07% · MAE -0.48%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -7.41%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -48.27% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0322
Entry high
$0.0326
Target 1
$0.0353
Target 2
$0.0371
Stop loss
$0.0300
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for ZEREBRO. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for ZEREBRO should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for ZEREBRO
TA Workspace · ZEREBRO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ZEREBRO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.032083 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
41,666.6667 ZEREBRO
$1.35K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.96
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0353
+1.21R$120.83(+1.21%)
T2 hit @ 0.0371
+1.96R$195.83(+1.96%)
Stop hit @ 0.03
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ZEREBRO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 120.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 84.9, returned 86.33%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 98.8.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 34.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
ZEREBRO Long: constructive command with guarded risk

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. ZEREBRO cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ZEREBRO
Price0.03
Timestamp1778140511862
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 49.9,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.04,
    "middle": 0.03,
    "lower": 0.03,
    "width": 48.17
  },
  "sma20": 0.03,
  "sma50": 0.03,
  "sma200": 0.02,
  "ema12": 0.03,
  "ema26": 0.03,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 32.69,
    "d": 64.61
  },
  "adx14": 34.65,
  "obv": 24392834.181079995
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ZEREBRO",
    "timestamp": 1778140511857,
    "price": 0.03236,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 27.03
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 15.16,
        "d": 17.75
      },
      "adx14": 31.15,
      "obv": -4364998.541099999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ZEREBRO",
    "timestamp": 1778140511860,
    "price": 0.03236,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 36.89
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.03,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.53,
        "d": 3.93
      },
      "adx14": 37.28,
      "obv": -6594406.987140001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ZEREBRO",
    "timestamp": 1778140511860,
    "price": 0.03236,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.9,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 48.17
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.03,
      "sma200": 0.02,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.03,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 32.69,
        "d": 64.61
      },
      "adx14": 34.65,
      "obv": 24392834.181079995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ZEREBRO",
    "timestamp": 1778140511862,
    "price": 0.03236,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.02,
        "lower": 0.01,
        "width": 147.48
      },
      "sma20": 0.02,
      "sma50": 0.01,
      "sma200": 0.02,
      "ema12": 0.03,
      "ema26": 0.02,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 58.23,
        "d": 72.44
      },
      "adx14": 64.77,
      "obv": -109242683.70840988
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest0
Price0.03
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.03
Take profit0.04
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.29
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ZEREBRO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked ZEREBRO mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 84.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score98.80
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence83.70
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 20.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 84.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 98.8.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked ZEREBRO mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score59.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0324
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ZEREBRO chart with overlay More thesesAll ZEREBRO theses