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Thesis · thesis_mov759jh_jz4wnc
SUI

SUI

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 27d ago · 2026-05-07T08:00:40Z · expires 2026-05-10

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.57%.

  • Closed -0.57% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9961
Entry high
$1.008
Target 1
$1.0393
Target 2
$1.0621
Stop loss
$0.9721
SUI · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
1.07571.00110.92650.85190.77730.8285/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.4
Bearish
ADX 14
39.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
3.62% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.9200
Lower 0.8000
inside
SMA stack
200.8600
500.9100
2001.03
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.828040 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,338.8982 SUI
$3.35K
Leverage
0.33x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.01
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.0393
+1.24R$124.37(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.0621
+2.01R$200.50(+2.01%)
Stop hit @ 0.9721
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 116.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 14.9, returned 12.68%, win rate 66.7%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 99.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 40.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.9720, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SUI Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. SUI cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SUI
Price1.00
Timestamp1778140510728
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 62.65,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.02,
    "middle": 0.96,
    "lower": 0.91,
    "width": 11.84
  },
  "sma20": 0.96,
  "sma50": 0.94,
  "sma200": 0.93,
  "ema12": 0.98,
  "ema26": 0.96,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 69.76,
    "d": 56.68
  },
  "adx14": 40.12,
  "obv": -2232655.755139998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1778140510726,
    "price": 1.00205,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.34,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.01,
        "middle": 0.98,
        "lower": 0.96,
        "width": 5.32
      },
      "sma20": 0.98,
      "sma50": 0.99,
      "sma200": 0.98,
      "ema12": 0.99,
      "ema26": 0.99,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.95,
        "d": 80.23
      },
      "adx14": 32.9,
      "obv": 845173.3332299988
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1778140510727,
    "price": 1.00205,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.73,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.01,
        "middle": 0.99,
        "lower": 0.97,
        "width": 4.88
      },
      "sma20": 0.99,
      "sma50": 0.98,
      "sma200": 0.94,
      "ema12": 0.99,
      "ema26": 0.99,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.55,
        "d": 71.55
      },
      "adx14": 22.63,
      "obv": 1258032.00868
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1778140510727,
    "price": 1.00205,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.02,
        "middle": 0.96,
        "lower": 0.91,
        "width": 11.84
      },
      "sma20": 0.96,
      "sma50": 0.94,
      "sma200": 0.93,
      "ema12": 0.98,
      "ema26": 0.96,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.76,
        "d": 56.68
      },
      "adx14": 40.12,
      "obv": -2232655.755139998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1778140510728,
    "price": 1.00205,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.99,
        "middle": 0.94,
        "lower": 0.89,
        "width": 10.22
      },
      "sma20": 0.94,
      "sma50": 0.93,
      "sma200": 1.36,
      "ema12": 0.95,
      "ema26": 0.94,
      "atr14": 0.04,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79,
        "d": 78.74
      },
      "adx14": 14.1,
      "obv": -184643639.54729983
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest22069916.92
Price1.00
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.50
Leverage2
Stop loss0.97
Take profit1.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.99
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked SUI mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 30.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score99.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84.50
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 30.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 99.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked SUI mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score55.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.0021
Funding rate
-0.0151%
Open interest
$22.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses