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Thesis · thesis_mov75f0q_37mlhe
CAKE

CAKE

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 27d ago · 2026-05-07T08:00:47Z · expires 2026-05-10

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.02% · MAE -0.04%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.91%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -4.32% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.564
Entry high
$1.576
Target 1
$1.6072
Target 2
$1.63
Stop loss
$1.54
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
39.5
Bearish
ADX 14
28.4
Trending
ATR 14
0.0400
2.97% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1.54
Lower 1.30
inside
SMA stack
201.42
501.41
2001.47
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · CAKE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CAKE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1.3293 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 CAKE
$5.23K
Leverage
0.52x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.6072
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.63
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1.54
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CAKE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 125.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 14.8, returned 4.98%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. SMA CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 34.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1.5400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
CAKE Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. CAKE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CAKE
Price1.57
Timestamp1778140511853
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 64.33,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.58,
    "middle": 1.53,
    "lower": 1.47,
    "width": 7.12
  },
  "sma20": 1.53,
  "sma50": 1.49,
  "sma200": 1.51,
  "ema12": 1.55,
  "ema26": 1.52,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 71.74,
    "d": 65.83
  },
  "adx14": 34.33,
  "obv": 138864.41777000006
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Morning Star"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1778140511849,
    "price": 1.57,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.58,
        "middle": 1.56,
        "lower": 1.54,
        "width": 2.3
      },
      "sma20": 1.56,
      "sma50": 1.56,
      "sma200": 1.54,
      "ema12": 1.57,
      "ema26": 1.56,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.91,
        "d": 90.91
      },
      "adx14": 20.42,
      "obv": 6911.219089999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1778140511850,
    "price": 1.57,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.77,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.58,
        "middle": 1.56,
        "lower": 1.54,
        "width": 2.46
      },
      "sma20": 1.56,
      "sma50": 1.54,
      "sma200": 1.49,
      "ema12": 1.56,
      "ema26": 1.55,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.76,
        "d": 71.72
      },
      "adx14": 21.2,
      "obv": -5910.559160000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1778140511852,
    "price": 1.57,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.58,
        "middle": 1.53,
        "lower": 1.47,
        "width": 7.12
      },
      "sma20": 1.53,
      "sma50": 1.49,
      "sma200": 1.51,
      "ema12": 1.55,
      "ema26": 1.52,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 71.74,
        "d": 65.83
      },
      "adx14": 34.33,
      "obv": 138864.41777000006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Morning Star"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1778140511853,
    "price": 1.57,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.68,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.57,
        "middle": 1.51,
        "lower": 1.44,
        "width": 8.58
      },
      "sma20": 1.51,
      "sma50": 1.47,
      "sma200": 1.82,
      "ema12": 1.51,
      "ema26": 1.5,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.1,
        "d": 88.9
      },
      "adx14": 21.3,
      "obv": -744710.9596399995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest925096.26
Price1.57
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss1.54
Take profit1.63
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.91
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CAKE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.8
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91
Reasons
  • SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.8
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score58
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.57
Funding rate
-0.0016%
Open interest
$0.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See CAKE chart with overlay More thesesAll CAKE theses