Thesis · thesis_mov7bf3v_o0lddj

JUP

longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 27d ago · 2026-05-07T08:05:27Z · expires 2026-05-09

Conviction

64/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.05%

peak -0.05% · MAE -0.05%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -4.58%.

Closed -4.58% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.2020

Entry high

$0.2044

Target 1

$0.2195

Target 2

$0.2295

Stop loss

$0.1900

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

59.2

Bullish

ADX 14

18.1

Weak trend

ATR 14

0.0100

4.85% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.2100

Lower 0.1800

inside

SMA stack

200.2000

500.1900

2000.2000

TA Workspace · JUP

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

JUP · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.205220 · max 10x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 10x)

Trade plan

Position size

7,575.7576 JUP

$1.54K

Leverage

0.15x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.99

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.2195

+1.23R$123.48(+1.23%)

T2 hit @ 0.2295

+1.99R$199.24(+1.99%)

Stop hit @ 0.19

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open JUP on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
Replay supports the live regime read.
Candidate quality is 126.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
EMA PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.8, returned 15.67%, win rate 80.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. SMA CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Bear case

ADX is near 40.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.1900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis

JUP Long: constructive command with guarded risk

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. JUP cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

JUP

Price0.20

Timestamp1778140804672

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 67.75,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.21,
    "middle": 0.19,
    "lower": 0.17,
    "width": 18.38
  },
  "sma20": 0.19,
  "sma50": 0.18,
  "sma200": 0.17,
  "ema12": 0.19,
  "ema26": 0.19,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 85.38,
    "d": 69
  },
  "adx14": 39.96,
  "obv": 2198603.5222499995
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1778140804670,
    "price": 0.203175,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 76.45,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.2,
        "middle": 0.2,
        "lower": 0.19,
        "width": 6.28
      },
      "sma20": 0.2,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.69,
        "d": 94.1
      },
      "adx14": 33.09,
      "obv": 1207872.3695200004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami",
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1778140804671,
    "price": 0.203175,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.68,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.2,
        "middle": 0.2,
        "lower": 0.19,
        "width": 5.46
      },
      "sma20": 0.2,
      "sma50": 0.19,
      "sma200": 0.18,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.44,
        "d": 83.14
      },
      "adx14": 37.15,
      "obv": 1287228.3941900004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1778140804672,
    "price": 0.203175,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.75,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.21,
        "middle": 0.19,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 18.38
      },
      "sma20": 0.19,
      "sma50": 0.18,
      "sma200": 0.17,
      "ema12": 0.19,
      "ema26": 0.19,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 85.38,
        "d": 69
      },
      "adx14": 39.96,
      "obv": 2198603.5222499995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "JUP",
    "timestamp": 1778140804672,
    "price": 0.203175,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.2,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.16,
        "width": 20.98
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.21,
      "ema12": 0.19,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 88.66,
        "d": 79.46
      },
      "adx14": 28.1,
      "obv": 10091647.962999992
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Price0.20

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

high

Max position %1.76

Leverage1

Stop loss0.19

Take profit0.23

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %6.48

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for JUP; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Live learning: Desk recently blocked JUP mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy lab B is constructive
SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 19.8

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence90.90

Reasons

SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 19.8

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score0

Note

Desk recently blocked JUP mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).

Strategy commander brain

State

warming

Score53.90

Note

Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.

Strategy lab brain

State

constructive

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.2032

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

EMA_PULLBACK · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

warming

Strategy lab

constructive

Desk posture

provisional

Brain mode

fast

See JUP chart with overlay More theses All JUP theses