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Thesis · thesis_mov7bw5t_h4j924
GRASS

GRASS

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 72d ago · 2026-05-07T08:05:50Z · expires 2026-05-10

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.52%.

  • Closed +0.52% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3656
Entry high
$0.3700
Target 1
$0.3864
Target 2
$0.3978
Stop loss
$0.3528
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.40310.3880.37290.35780.34270.35457/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.0
Bearish
ADX 14
25.9
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
2.83% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4000
Lower 0.3400
inside
SMA stack
200.3700
500.3800
2000.4400
PatternsGravestone Doji
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.358710 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 GRASS
$2.45K
Leverage
0.25x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3864
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.3978
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.3528
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d structure leans constructive.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 80.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 27.7, returned 22.72%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 29.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3528, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
GRASS Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. GRASS cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.37
Timestamp1778141108707
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.48,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.37,
    "middle": 0.35,
    "lower": 0.33,
    "width": 11.64
  },
  "sma20": 0.35,
  "sma50": 0.34,
  "sma200": 0.34,
  "ema12": 0.36,
  "ema26": 0.35,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 73.76,
    "d": 66.25
  },
  "adx14": 29.52,
  "obv": 205174.07977
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1778141108701,
    "price": 0.36784,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.19,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 5.98
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.36,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.88,
        "d": 93.96
      },
      "adx14": 26.19,
      "obv": 30624.432259999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1778141108704,
    "price": 0.36784,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 7.79
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64,
        "d": 43.56
      },
      "adx14": 23.91,
      "obv": 7387.749810000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1778141108706,
    "price": 0.36784,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.33,
        "width": 11.64
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.76,
        "d": 66.25
      },
      "adx14": 29.52,
      "obv": 205174.07977
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1778141108707,
    "price": 0.36784,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.6,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.42,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 36.03
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.31,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 36.45,
        "d": 32.82
      },
      "adx14": 19.35,
      "obv": 1526228.3696400004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Price0.37
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.96
Leverage2
Stop loss0.35
Take profit0.40
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.08
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 27.7
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence85.90
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 27.7
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.10
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score38.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3678
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses