EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mp2aiz8y_dpx6pl
NEAR

NEAR

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 22d ago · 2026-05-12T07:09:42Z · expires 2026-05-15

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.02% · MAE -0.11%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.33%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -11.45% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.5388
Entry high
$1.5532
Target 1
$1.5906
Target 2
$1.618
Stop loss
$1.51
NEAR · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2.84042.49192.14351.79511.44672.71645/29 01:005/30 07:005/31 13:006/1 19:006/3 01:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
60.4
Bullish
ADX 14
23.8
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.1600
5.91% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 2.80
Lower 2.11
inside
SMA stack
202.46
502.49
2001.84
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · NEAR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

NEAR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $2.8776 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
2,777.7778 NEAR
$4.29K
Leverage
0.43x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.5906
+1.24R$123.89(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.618
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1.51
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open NEAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Candidate quality is 92.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 11.83%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 93.1.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 32.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1.5100, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
NEAR Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. NEAR cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
NEAR
Price1.55
Timestamp1778569741429
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 52.47,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": -0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.61,
    "middle": 1.56,
    "lower": 1.51,
    "width": 6.28
  },
  "sma20": 1.56,
  "sma50": 1.47,
  "sma200": 1.39,
  "ema12": 1.55,
  "ema26": 1.53,
  "atr14": 0.04,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 33.33,
    "d": 25.69
  },
  "adx14": 32.39,
  "obv": 396671.77896767034
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1778569741423,
    "price": 1.546,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.37,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.56,
        "middle": 1.54,
        "lower": 1.51,
        "width": 3.13
      },
      "sma20": 1.54,
      "sma50": 1.54,
      "sma200": 1.55,
      "ema12": 1.55,
      "ema26": 1.54,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 71.43,
        "d": 86.67
      },
      "adx14": 26.41,
      "obv": -219282.98580175993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1778569741425,
    "price": 1.546,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.37,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.56,
        "middle": 1.54,
        "lower": 1.51,
        "width": 3.54
      },
      "sma20": 1.54,
      "sma50": 1.55,
      "sma200": 1.46,
      "ema12": 1.54,
      "ema26": 1.54,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75,
        "d": 77.98
      },
      "adx14": 11.55,
      "obv": 1722221.2646988505
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1778569741427,
    "price": 1.546,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.47,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.61,
        "middle": 1.56,
        "lower": 1.51,
        "width": 6.28
      },
      "sma20": 1.56,
      "sma50": 1.47,
      "sma200": 1.39,
      "ema12": 1.55,
      "ema26": 1.53,
      "atr14": 0.04,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.33,
        "d": 25.69
      },
      "adx14": 32.39,
      "obv": 396671.77896767034
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1778569741429,
    "price": 1.546,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.62,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": 0.04,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.63,
        "middle": 1.41,
        "lower": 1.19,
        "width": 30.98
      },
      "sma20": 1.41,
      "sma50": 1.34,
      "sma200": 1.54,
      "ema12": 1.47,
      "ema26": 1.42,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 78.18,
        "d": 79.83
      },
      "adx14": 30.76,
      "obv": -3201533.696094038
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Open Interest36162271.32
Price1.55
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.84
Leverage3
Stop loss1.51
Take profit1.62
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.33
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for NEAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked NEAR mostly because: FredAI memory grade C is still warming (RSI_PULLBACK, confidence 48.0).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score93.10
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence78.50
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 93.1.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked NEAR mostly because: FredAI memory grade C is still warming (RSI_PULLBACK, confidence 48.0).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score51.70
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.546
Open interest
$36.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See NEAR chart with overlay More thesesAll NEAR theses