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Thesis · thesis_mp2d68kb_l3qavm
BTC

BTC

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 22d ago · 2026-05-12T08:23:57Z · expires 2026-05-14

Conviction
66/100
Bull / Bear
61/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.14%.

  • Closed +0.14% at conviction 66/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$80,639.52
Entry high
$80,984.68
Target 1
$81,882.11
Target 2
$82,537.92
Stop loss
$79,949.19
BTC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
83,393.9778,685.7173,977.4669,269.2164,560.9566,7255/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
24.1
Oversold
ADX 14
58.2
Very strong trend
ATR 14
1090
1.63% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75932
Lower 64710
inside
SMA stack
2070321
5072704
20077358
TA Workspace · BTC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

BTC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66700.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
0.1159 BTC
$9.37K
Leverage
0.94x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 81882.1084
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 82537.92
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 79949.19
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 60.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 12.1, returned 2.88%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 31.4.
  • Historical setup quality note: Historical edge is still warming up, so live structure should matter more than closed-history proof.
  • Risk controls cleared low risk with a projected 2.0:1 reward-to-risk profile.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 42.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $79949.1900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
BTC Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. BTC cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
BTC
Timestamp1778573923574
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 49.35,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 235.61,
    "signal": 259.32,
    "histogram": -23.71
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 82035.36,
    "middle": 80992.28,
    "lower": 79949.19,
    "width": 2.58
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 692.3,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 19.92
  },
  "adx14": 42.28,
  "obv": 9377.556436730007
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1778573923569,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 28.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -124.41,
        "signal": -100.49,
        "histogram": -23.92
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 81368.77,
        "middle": 81101.95,
        "lower": 80835.13,
        "width": 0.66
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 122.1,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 4.12
      },
      "adx14": 39.92,
      "obv": 11.671794500000077
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1778573923572,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -34.22,
        "signal": 60.5,
        "histogram": -94.73
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 82133.86,
        "middle": 81403.1,
        "lower": 80672.34,
        "width": 1.8
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 328.48,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 10.9
      },
      "adx14": 22.1,
      "obv": 95.03722783000026
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1778573923573,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 235.61,
        "signal": 259.32,
        "histogram": -23.71
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 82035.36,
        "middle": 80992.28,
        "lower": 79949.19,
        "width": 2.58
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 692.3,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 19.92
      },
      "adx14": 42.28,
      "obv": 9377.556436730007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "BTC",
    "timestamp": 1778573923574,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1969.57,
        "signal": 1868.9,
        "histogram": 100.67
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 82577.03,
        "middle": 78921.04,
        "lower": 75265.05,
        "width": 9.26
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 1958.76,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 59.54
      },
      "adx14": 32.27,
      "obv": -46830.72862571003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest2385079464.25
Price80812.10
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss79949.19
Take profit82537.92
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.07
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for BTC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread9.75
Dominant Conviction60.75
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction60.75
Bear Conviction39.25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: admin_test at 24.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: no recent execution lesson changed this asset materially.
  • Admin test publish path
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.1
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score31.40
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence39.40
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 12.1
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 31.4.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score19.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$80,812.1
Funding rate
-0.0033%
Open interest
$2385.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See BTC chart with overlay More thesesAll BTC theses