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Thesis · thesis_mpclmbpf_iju7di
FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 15d ago · 2026-05-19T12:17:56Z · expires 2026-05-21

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/76
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.32%.

  • Closed +0.32% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1823
Entry high
$0.1845
Target 1
$0.1752
Target 2
$0.1702
Stop loss
$0.1900
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
43.8
Bearish
ADX 14
45.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.0100
6.80% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1700
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1600
2000.2000
TA Workspace · FARTCOIN
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FARTCOIN · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.146120 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
15,151.5152 FARTCOIN
$2.78K
Leverage
0.28x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1752
+1.24R$124.24(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.1702
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.19
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FARTCOIN on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 53.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 36.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • Replay memory is thin for this asset/regime, so sizing remains conservative.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence. Policy confidence 33.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
FARTCOIN Short: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. FARTCOIN cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FARTCOIN
Price0.18
Timestamp1779193050568
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 32.56,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": -0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.2,
    "middle": 0.19,
    "lower": 0.18,
    "width": 10.41
  },
  "sma20": 0.19,
  "sma50": 0.21,
  "sma200": 0.21,
  "ema12": 0.19,
  "ema26": 0.19,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 36.68,
    "d": 41.21
  },
  "adx14": 53.08,
  "obv": 9056829.19879999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami",
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 8,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1779193050566,
    "price": 0.1834,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 41.6,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.19,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 2.91
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.19,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.18,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 37.93,
        "d": 26.46
      },
      "adx14": 21.31,
      "obv": -1213612.8321800001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1779193050567,
    "price": 0.1834,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.19,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 4.18
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.19,
      "sma200": 0.21,
      "ema12": 0.18,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 18.03,
        "d": 18.03
      },
      "adx14": 22.57,
      "obv": -15201831.793239998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1779193050568,
    "price": 0.1834,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 32.56,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.2,
        "middle": 0.19,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 10.41
      },
      "sma20": 0.19,
      "sma50": 0.21,
      "sma200": 0.21,
      "ema12": 0.19,
      "ema26": 0.19,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 36.68,
        "d": 41.21
      },
      "adx14": 53.08,
      "obv": 9056829.19879999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1779193050568,
    "price": 0.1834,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.27,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 47.65
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.21,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.77,
        "d": 9.44
      },
      "adx14": 30.99,
      "obv": -127537353.02939005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest29612365.81
Price0.18
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.20
Leverage2
Stop loss0.19
Take profit0.17
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.60
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FARTCOIN; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction76
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked FARTCOIN mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (extreme).
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander evidence is still thin
  • Strategy lab is offline
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • strategy lab is still too thin for FredAI to trust heavily
  • strategy commander context is thin
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score33
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence21.40
Reasons
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • strategy lab is still too thin for FredAI to trust heavily
  • strategy commander context is thin
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence. Policy confidence 33.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked FARTCOIN mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (extreme).
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score18.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1834
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$29.6M
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See FARTCOIN chart with overlay More thesesAll FARTCOIN theses