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Thesis · thesis_mpd1p2tb_scdshj
VIRTUAL

VIRTUAL

 shortWIN 1-3d

Generated 14d ago · 2026-05-19T19:47:58Z · expires 2026-05-21

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +1.27%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +1.27% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.7188
Entry high
$0.7202
Target 1
$0.7159
Target 2
$0.7137
Stop loss
$0.7224
VIRTUAL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.77420.75050.72680.70310.67940.74635/29 11:005/30 17:005/31 23:006/2 05:006/3 11:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
54.2
Neutral
ADX 14
13.0
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0400
5.36% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.7600
Lower 0.6800
inside
SMA stack
200.7200
500.7400
2000.7700
TA Workspace · VIRTUAL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

VIRTUAL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.744630 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
34,482.7586 VIRTUAL
$24.81K
Leverage
2.48x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.864500
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.7159
+1.24R$124.14(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.7137
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.7224
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open VIRTUAL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 29.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.7224, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 96.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • DONCHIAN BREAKOUT replay (latest asset) scored 35.7, returned 28.95%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
VIRTUAL Short: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. VIRTUAL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
VIRTUAL
Price0.72
Timestamp1779220049409
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 45.17,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -0.01,
    "signal": -0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.74,
    "middle": 0.72,
    "lower": 0.69,
    "width": 6.65
  },
  "sma20": 0.72,
  "sma50": 0.76,
  "sma200": 0.76,
  "ema12": 0.72,
  "ema26": 0.73,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 57.53,
    "d": 50.17
  },
  "adx14": 29,
  "obv": 571128.1121799999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1779220049407,
    "price": 0.7195,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.73,
        "middle": 0.72,
        "lower": 0.71,
        "width": 2.94
      },
      "sma20": 0.72,
      "sma50": 0.72,
      "sma200": 0.71,
      "ema12": 0.72,
      "ema26": 0.72,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.88,
        "d": 64.81
      },
      "adx14": 11.04,
      "obv": -175915.94598
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1779220049408,
    "price": 0.7195,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.52,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.73,
        "middle": 0.72,
        "lower": 0.71,
        "width": 2.77
      },
      "sma20": 0.72,
      "sma50": 0.71,
      "sma200": 0.76,
      "ema12": 0.72,
      "ema26": 0.72,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.63,
        "d": 33.48
      },
      "adx14": 21.88,
      "obv": -716480.8493999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1779220049408,
    "price": 0.7195,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.74,
        "middle": 0.72,
        "lower": 0.69,
        "width": 6.65
      },
      "sma20": 0.72,
      "sma50": 0.76,
      "sma200": 0.76,
      "ema12": 0.72,
      "ema26": 0.73,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 57.53,
        "d": 50.17
      },
      "adx14": 29,
      "obv": 571128.1121799999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1779220049409,
    "price": 0.7195,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": -0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.96,
        "middle": 0.79,
        "lower": 0.63,
        "width": 41.14
      },
      "sma20": 0.79,
      "sma50": 0.72,
      "sma200": 0.81,
      "ema12": 0.76,
      "ema26": 0.76,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 11.87,
        "d": 10.57
      },
      "adx14": 29.14,
      "obv": -12941192.131619994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest10550363.02
Price0.72
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.72
Take profit0.71
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for VIRTUAL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked VIRTUAL mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.7
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence96.50
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.7
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0.70
Note
Desk recently blocked VIRTUAL mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score56.70
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.7195
Funding rate
-0.0023%
Open interest
$10.6M
Macro regime
balanced_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See VIRTUAL chart with overlay More thesesAll VIRTUAL theses