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Thesis · thesis_mpgmakjc_zx9220
PENDLE

PENDLE

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 12d ago · 2026-05-22T07:47:52Z · expires 2026-05-24

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.04%
peak -0.04% · MAE -0.32%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -3.74%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -32.13% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.9413
Entry high
$1.9647
Target 1
$2.0345
Target 2
$2.0844
Stop loss
$1.88
PENDLE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
2.12431.90471.68521.46561.2461.34345/29 01:005/30 07:005/31 13:006/1 19:006/3 01:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
53.4
Neutral
ADX 14
25.4
Trending
ATR 14
0.0600
4.20% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1.46
Lower 1.29
inside
SMA stack
201.37
501.48
2001.78
TA Workspace · PENDLE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PENDLE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1.4278 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1,369.863 PENDLE
$2.68K
Leverage
0.27x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 2.0345
+1.12R$111.64(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 2.0844
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 1.88
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PENDLE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 52.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 23.5, returned 24.52%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. EMA PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 47.8.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 19.6, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $1.8800, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
PENDLE Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive. PENDLE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PENDLE
Price1.95
Timestamp1779436050231
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.4,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0.02
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.98,
    "middle": 1.83,
    "lower": 1.68,
    "width": 16.19
  },
  "sma20": 1.83,
  "sma50": 1.88,
  "sma200": 1.67,
  "ema12": 1.88,
  "ema26": 1.86,
  "atr14": 0.06,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 83.06,
    "d": 91
  },
  "adx14": 19.61,
  "obv": 443147.5607100007
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1779436050228,
    "price": 1.953,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2,
        "middle": 1.96,
        "lower": 1.93,
        "width": 3.63
      },
      "sma20": 1.96,
      "sma50": 1.92,
      "sma200": 1.86,
      "ema12": 1.95,
      "ema26": 1.95,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 38.1,
        "d": 31.37
      },
      "adx14": 23.93,
      "obv": 59223.18843000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1779436050229,
    "price": 1.953,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.11,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.99,
        "middle": 1.9,
        "lower": 1.8,
        "width": 10.35
      },
      "sma20": 1.9,
      "sma50": 1.86,
      "sma200": 1.88,
      "ema12": 1.93,
      "ema26": 1.9,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 61.65,
        "d": 59.88
      },
      "adx14": 32.81,
      "obv": -243252.10810000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1779436050230,
    "price": 1.953,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.4,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.98,
        "middle": 1.83,
        "lower": 1.68,
        "width": 16.19
      },
      "sma20": 1.83,
      "sma50": 1.88,
      "sma200": 1.67,
      "ema12": 1.88,
      "ema26": 1.86,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.06,
        "d": 91
      },
      "adx14": 19.61,
      "obv": 443147.5607100007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1779436050231,
    "price": 1.953,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.1,
        "signal": 0.13,
        "histogram": -0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 2.16,
        "middle": 1.92,
        "lower": 1.67,
        "width": 25.42
      },
      "sma20": 1.92,
      "sma50": 1.51,
      "sma200": 1.74,
      "ema12": 1.88,
      "ema26": 1.78,
      "atr14": 0.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 49.9,
        "d": 38.92
      },
      "adx14": 44.05,
      "obv": 1438288.0218099994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest12827393.92
Price1.95
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.13
Leverage2
Stop loss1.88
Take profit2.08
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.74
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PENDLE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • strategy lab is fragile, so FredAI is staying cautious
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score47.80
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence51.40
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • strategy lab is fragile, so FredAI is staying cautious
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 47.8.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.10
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score16.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.953
Funding rate
0.0009%
Open interest
$12.8M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PENDLE chart with overlay More thesesAll PENDLE theses