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Thesis · thesis_mpguuqki_xpde26
VIRTUAL

VIRTUAL

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 11d ago · 2026-05-22T11:47:30Z · expires 2026-05-25

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.05%
peak +0.04% · MAE -0.06%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -4.80%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Was up +3.59% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -5.75% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.7726
Entry high
$0.7820
Target 1
$0.8236
Target 2
$0.8519
Stop loss
$0.7400
VIRTUAL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.86030.81410.76780.72150.67530.74415/29 11:005/30 17:005/31 23:006/2 05:006/3 11:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
54.2
Neutral
ADX 14
13.0
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0400
5.36% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.7600
Lower 0.6800
inside
SMA stack
200.7200
500.7400
2000.7700
TA Workspace · VIRTUAL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

VIRTUAL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.745390 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
2,680.9651 VIRTUAL
$2.08K
Leverage
0.21x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.8236
+1.24R$124.13(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.8519
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.74
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open VIRTUAL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 117.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • DONCHIAN BREAKOUT replay (latest asset) scored 35.7, returned 28.95%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 35.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.7400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
VIRTUAL Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. VIRTUAL cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
VIRTUAL
Price0.78
Timestamp1779450447812
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 61.98,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.78,
    "middle": 0.74,
    "lower": 0.69,
    "width": 11.69
  },
  "sma20": 0.74,
  "sma50": 0.74,
  "sma200": 0.76,
  "ema12": 0.75,
  "ema26": 0.74,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 86,
    "d": 81.86
  },
  "adx14": 35.16,
  "obv": 649349.8598499997
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1779450447809,
    "price": 0.7773,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.39,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.79,
        "middle": 0.78,
        "lower": 0.77,
        "width": 2.36
      },
      "sma20": 0.78,
      "sma50": 0.77,
      "sma200": 0.75,
      "ema12": 0.78,
      "ema26": 0.77,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 48.93,
        "d": 44.92
      },
      "adx14": 34.95,
      "obv": 39275.365699999995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1779450447810,
    "price": 0.7773,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.78,
        "middle": 0.76,
        "lower": 0.74,
        "width": 6.19
      },
      "sma20": 0.76,
      "sma50": 0.75,
      "sma200": 0.74,
      "ema12": 0.77,
      "ema26": 0.76,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.44,
        "d": 67.56
      },
      "adx14": 59.42,
      "obv": -262567.7528699999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1779450447811,
    "price": 0.7773,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.78,
        "middle": 0.74,
        "lower": 0.69,
        "width": 11.69
      },
      "sma20": 0.74,
      "sma50": 0.74,
      "sma200": 0.76,
      "ema12": 0.75,
      "ema26": 0.74,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86,
        "d": 81.86
      },
      "adx14": 35.16,
      "obv": 649349.8598499997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "VIRTUAL",
    "timestamp": 1779450447812,
    "price": 0.7773,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.62,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.95,
        "middle": 0.8,
        "lower": 0.65,
        "width": 38.35
      },
      "sma20": 0.8,
      "sma50": 0.73,
      "sma200": 0.8,
      "ema12": 0.76,
      "ema26": 0.76,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.98,
        "d": 22.51
      },
      "adx14": 25.39,
      "obv": -6385407.961510001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest11181833.62
Price0.78
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.60
Leverage2
Stop loss0.74
Take profit0.85
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.80
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for VIRTUAL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.7
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence96.50
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.7
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-7.40
Note
Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score56.70
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.7773
Funding rate
-0.0023%
Open interest
$11.2M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See VIRTUAL chart with overlay More thesesAll VIRTUAL theses