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Thesis · thesis_mpxrk6nq_c07w8c
HBAR

HBAR

 shortWIN 1-3d

Generated 45d ago · 2026-06-03T07:47:27Z · expires 2026-06-05

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
25/76
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.03%
peak +0.03% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +2.54%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +3.24% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0885
Entry high
$0.0890
Target 1
$0.0873
Target 2
$0.0865
Stop loss
$0.0900
HBAR · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.09120.08450.07770.07090.06410.06687/13 18:007/15 00:007/16 06:007/17 12:007/18 18:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · death cross
RSI 14
49.6
Neutral
ADX 14
21.0
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0700
Lower 0.0700
inside
SMA stack
200.0700
500.0700
2000.0700
PatternsBullish Marubozu
TA Workspace · HBAR
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HBAR · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.066671 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
80,000 HBAR
$7.10K
Leverage
0.71x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0873
+1.16R$116.00(+1.16%)
T2 hit @ 0.0865
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.09
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HBAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 23.6, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is -21.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • Replay memory is thin for this asset/regime, so sizing remains conservative.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence. Policy confidence 31.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command coverage is still thin.

Final thesis
HBAR Short: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command coverage is still thin. HBAR cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HBAR
Price0.09
Timestamp1780472774514
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 42.89,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.1,
    "middle": 0.09,
    "lower": 0.09,
    "width": 15.79
  },
  "sma20": 0.09,
  "sma50": 0.09,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.09,
  "ema26": 0.09,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 28.43,
    "d": 13
  },
  "adx14": 23.65,
  "obv": 13772218
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HBAR",
    "timestamp": 1780472774512,
    "price": 0.088738,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.04,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.09,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 5.79
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.9,
        "d": 83.88
      },
      "adx14": 30.3,
      "obv": -412879
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HBAR",
    "timestamp": 1780472774513,
    "price": 0.088738,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.87,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.09,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 5.58
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.86,
        "d": 82.14
      },
      "adx14": 53.23,
      "obv": -6216084
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HBAR",
    "timestamp": 1780472774513,
    "price": 0.088738,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 15.79
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.43,
        "d": 13
      },
      "adx14": 23.65,
      "obv": 13772218
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HBAR",
    "timestamp": 1780472774514,
    "price": 0.088738,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 14.69
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 24.74,
        "d": 26.65
      },
      "adx14": 28.41,
      "obv": -157136799
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.9,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": 0.1,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.1
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.7
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest5420828.52
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 235.9,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.08875878
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.09079
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.088681
    }
  ]
}
Price0.09
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.09
Take profit0.09
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %1.42
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HBAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction76
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is thin, so AI should not command aggressively yet.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked HBAR mostly because: Insufficient TA coverage (0/9). Missing: indicators
  • Admin test publish path
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander evidence is still thin
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • strategy lab is fragile, so FredAI is staying cautious
  • strategy commander context is thin
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score31
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence20.20
Reasons
  • SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • strategy lab is fragile, so FredAI is staying cautious
  • strategy commander context is thin
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. SHORT desk bias has 100 confidence. Policy confidence 31.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked HBAR mostly because: Insufficient TA coverage (0/9). Missing: indicators
Strategy commander brain
State
offline
Score4
Note
Strategy lab is thin, so AI should not command aggressively yet.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0887
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$5.4M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bear_lowvol
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
offline
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See HBAR chart with overlay More thesesAll HBAR theses