EGOLDSEGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mr3voxjd_xyf1pn
FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 1d ago · 2026-07-02T19:09:23Z · expires 2026-07-04

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.14%
peak +0.15% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +14.44%.

  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +14.62% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1518
Entry high
$0.1537
Target 1
$0.1664
Target 2
$0.1748
Stop loss
$0.1405
FARTCOIN · 1h candles · last 120
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.1820.16030.13860.1170.09530.17136/5 02:006/6 08:006/7 14:006/8 20:006/10 01:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
69.0
Bullish
ADX 14
35.8
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
5.88% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1800
Lower 0.1300
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1400
2000.1300
TA Workspace · FARTCOIN
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FARTCOIN · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.170470 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
8,163.2653 FARTCOIN
$1.25K
Leverage
0.12x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1664
+1.11R$111.43(+1.11%)
T2 hit @ 0.1748
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 0.1405
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FARTCOIN on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h structure leans constructive.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 43.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 18.8, returned 23.36%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. MACD MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 55.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 19.0, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1405, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
FARTCOIN Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. FARTCOIN cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FARTCOIN
Price0.15
Timestamp1783019340213
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 67.68,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.15,
    "middle": 0.14,
    "lower": 0.13,
    "width": 12.53
  },
  "sma20": 0.14,
  "sma50": 0.13,
  "sma200": 0.13,
  "ema12": 0.14,
  "ema26": 0.14,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 86.69,
    "d": 83.85
  },
  "adx14": 19.04,
  "obv": -431140023.6000003
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1783019340209,
    "price": 0.15276,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.15,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 2.47
      },
      "sma20": 0.15,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.14,
      "ema12": 0.15,
      "ema26": 0.15,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 52.59,
        "d": 72.87
      },
      "adx14": 22.98,
      "obv": -5473213.399999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1783019340210,
    "price": 0.15273,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 85.87,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.14,
        "middle": 0.12,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 24.63
      },
      "sma20": 0.12,
      "sma50": 0.12,
      "sma200": 0.13,
      "ema12": 0.12,
      "ema26": 0.12,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.58,
        "d": 62.14
      },
      "adx14": 19.5,
      "obv": -96100102.3
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1783019340211,
    "price": 0.15276,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.68,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.14,
        "lower": 0.13,
        "width": 12.53
      },
      "sma20": 0.14,
      "sma50": 0.13,
      "sma200": 0.13,
      "ema12": 0.14,
      "ema26": 0.14,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.69,
        "d": 83.85
      },
      "adx14": 19.04,
      "obv": -431140023.6000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1783019340213,
    "price": 0.15276,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.44,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.15,
        "middle": 0.13,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 23.88
      },
      "sma20": 0.13,
      "sma50": 0.15,
      "sma200": 0.21,
      "ema12": 0.13,
      "ema26": 0.14,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.02,
        "d": 79.08
      },
      "adx14": 18.83,
      "obv": -622051872.4999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 3.3,
  "maxBps": 3.8,
  "minBps": 0.5,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 3.8
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest23553056.70
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 2969.3,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.20292024
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 0.15261447
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.15273
    }
  ]
}
Price0.15
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.14
Take profit0.17
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %8
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FARTCOIN; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • Admin test publish path
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.8
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score55.30
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence52.50
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.8
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 55.3.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score18.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1528
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$23.6M
Macro regime
balanced_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
balanced_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See FARTCOIN chart with overlay More thesesAll FARTCOIN theses