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Thesis · thesis_mrgoie9j_15vxm4
PENDLE

PENDLE

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 4h ago · 2026-07-11T18:09:21Z · expires 2026-07-13

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
76/25
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.02% · MAE -0.16%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.33%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -15.93% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.5694
Entry high
$1.584
Target 1
$1.6222
Target 2
$1.6501
Stop loss
$1.54
PENDLE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
1.66311.59161.52011.44851.3771.55947/6 22:007/8 04:007/9 10:007/10 16:007/11 22:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
56.1
Bullish
ADX 14
28.3
Trending
ATR 14
0.0400
2.56% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1.60
Lower 1.47
inside
SMA stack
201.54
501.49
2001.37
TA Workspace · PENDLE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PENDLE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1.5595 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
2,724.7956 PENDLE
$4.30K
Leverage
0.43x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.6222
+1.24R$123.98(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.6501
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1.54
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PENDLE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 50.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • EMA PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 23.5, returned 24.52%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. EMA PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 44.8.
  • Historical lane Swing Probe Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is strong enough to let the desk lean in a little faster when live structure agrees.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 27.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1.5400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
PENDLE Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Risk controls are still inside desk limits. Strategy command is defensive. PENDLE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PENDLE
Price1.58
Timestamp1783793340172
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.87,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.6,
    "middle": 1.54,
    "lower": 1.47,
    "width": 8.46
  },
  "sma20": 1.54,
  "sma50": 1.49,
  "sma200": 1.37,
  "ema12": 1.55,
  "ema26": 1.52,
  "atr14": 0.04,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 78.52,
    "d": 74.31
  },
  "adx14": 27.64,
  "obv": 804353
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1783793340169,
    "price": 1.5767,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.6,
        "middle": 1.58,
        "lower": 1.56,
        "width": 2.37
      },
      "sma20": 1.58,
      "sma50": 1.57,
      "sma200": 1.54,
      "ema12": 1.57,
      "ema26": 1.57,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.58,
        "d": 49.74
      },
      "adx14": 16.93,
      "obv": 140017
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1783793340170,
    "price": 1.57805,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 86.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.42,
        "middle": 1.27,
        "lower": 1.13,
        "width": 22.72
      },
      "sma20": 1.27,
      "sma50": 1.27,
      "sma200": 1.29,
      "ema12": 1.3,
      "ema26": 1.28,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 93.63,
        "d": 64.04
      },
      "adx14": 19.53,
      "obv": -2826333
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1783793340171,
    "price": 1.5767,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.87,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.6,
        "middle": 1.54,
        "lower": 1.47,
        "width": 8.46
      },
      "sma20": 1.54,
      "sma50": 1.49,
      "sma200": 1.37,
      "ema12": 1.55,
      "ema26": 1.52,
      "atr14": 0.04,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 78.52,
        "d": 74.31
      },
      "adx14": 27.64,
      "obv": 804353
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PENDLE",
    "timestamp": 1783793340172,
    "price": 1.5767,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.61,
        "middle": 1.4,
        "lower": 1.18,
        "width": 30.31
      },
      "sma20": 1.4,
      "sma50": 1.41,
      "sma200": 1.5,
      "ema12": 1.47,
      "ema26": 1.43,
      "atr14": 0.11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 92.03,
        "d": 81.71
      },
      "adx14": 21.79,
      "obv": -17682923
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 0.9,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": 0.1,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.1
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest7249864.78
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 3,
  "spreadBps": 1690.3,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 1.57805
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 1.57735059
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 1.32557485
    }
  ]
}
Price1.58
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.84
Leverage3
Stop loss1.54
Take profit1.65
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.33
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PENDLE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction76
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction76
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
  • Latest-asset replay supports the direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • trend remains constructive, but pullback risk is elevated
FredAI policy
State
size_down
Score44.80
Conviction Adjustment-4
Risk Adjustment-2
Confidence49.40
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • trend remains constructive, but pullback risk is elevated
Note
FredAI allows the setup, but size should stay conservative. EMA_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 44.8.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-11.60
Note
Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score16.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.5767
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$7.2M
Macro regime
balanced_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
balanced_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
EMA_PULLBACK · latest_asset
FredAI policy
size_down
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PENDLE chart with overlay More thesesAll PENDLE theses