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Thesis · thesis_mrh3iiih_us0wny
ETH

ETH

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 3h ago · 2026-07-12T01:09:21Z · expires 2026-07-13

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
70/30
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.02%
peak +0.29% · MAE +0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +1.89%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Ran to +28.86% at peak but closed +1.89% — gave back 26.97pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1,790.9
Entry high
$1,797.69
Target 1
$1,815.34
Target 2
$1,828.25
Stop loss
$1,777.32
ETH · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
1,834.911,802.981,771.051,739.121,707.21,809.87/7 04:007/8 10:007/9 16:007/10 22:007/12 04:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
58.6
Bullish
ADX 14
26.1
Trending
ATR 14
23.13
1.28% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1837
Lower 1726
inside
SMA stack
201781
501775
2001696
PatternsDragonfly Doji
TA Workspace · ETH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ETH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1809.60 · max 25x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
5.891 ETH
$10.57K
Leverage
1.06x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$945.5450
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1815.344
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1828.245
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1777.32
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ETH on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 26.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 11.4, returned 2.41%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI flags the setup as avoid. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 3.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 26.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1777.3200, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ETH Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. ETH cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ETH
Price1794.29
Timestamp1783818496374
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 54.88,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 13.02,
    "signal": 11.74,
    "histogram": 1.27
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1832.28,
    "middle": 1777.32,
    "lower": 1722.36,
    "width": 6.18
  },
  "sma20": 1777.32,
  "sma50": 1773.63,
  "sma200": 1695.18,
  "ema12": 1793.37,
  "ema26": 1780.35,
  "atr14": 23.27,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 62,
    "d": 71.6
  },
  "adx14": 26.93,
  "obv": -1119525.0643000004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "low",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1783818496370,
    "price": 1794.2949999123812,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -8.5,
        "signal": -6.11,
        "histogram": -2.39
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1841.48,
        "middle": 1808.33,
        "lower": 1775.19,
        "width": 3.67
      },
      "sma20": 1808.33,
      "sma50": 1813.29,
      "sma200": 1794.02,
      "ema12": 1796.89,
      "ema26": 1805.39,
      "atr14": 6.22,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.18,
        "d": 22.72
      },
      "adx14": 47.26,
      "obv": 112.28380000000675
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1783818496372,
    "price": 1794.2949999123812,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 77.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 4.31,
        "signal": -4.13,
        "histogram": 8.44
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1731.87,
        "middle": 1664.14,
        "lower": 1596.42,
        "width": 8.14
      },
      "sma20": 1664.14,
      "sma50": 1673.46,
      "sma200": 1727.46,
      "ema12": 1672.07,
      "ema26": 1667.76,
      "atr14": 39.64,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.71,
        "d": 56.87
      },
      "adx14": 24.17,
      "obv": -1060048.4549000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1783818496373,
    "price": 1794.2949999123812,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 13.02,
        "signal": 11.74,
        "histogram": 1.27
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1832.28,
        "middle": 1777.32,
        "lower": 1722.36,
        "width": 6.18
      },
      "sma20": 1777.32,
      "sma50": 1773.63,
      "sma200": 1695.18,
      "ema12": 1793.37,
      "ema26": 1780.35,
      "atr14": 23.27,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62,
        "d": 71.6
      },
      "adx14": 26.93,
      "obv": -1119525.0643000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ETH",
    "timestamp": 1783818496374,
    "price": 1794.2949999123812,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.02,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 12.33,
        "signal": -7.56,
        "histogram": 19.89
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1874.33,
        "middle": 1691.75,
        "lower": 1509.17,
        "width": 21.59
      },
      "sma20": 1691.75,
      "sma50": 1762.2,
      "sma200": 2221.94,
      "ema12": 1751.88,
      "ema26": 1739.55,
      "atr14": 70.25,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.05,
        "d": 85.54
      },
      "adx14": 23.76,
      "obv": -9067806.192200003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Cross Venue Funding
{
  "venues": 8,
  "spreadBps": 1.9,
  "maxBps": 1,
  "minBps": -0.9,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "edgex",
      "bps": 0.5
    },
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "bps": 0.1
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 0
    },
    {
      "venue": "bybit",
      "bps": 0.2
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "bps": 1
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": -0.9
    },
    {
      "venue": "okx",
      "bps": 0.8
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "bps": 0
    }
  ]
}
Open Interest0
Cross Venue O I
{
  "venues": 2,
  "totalUsd": 3073330596,
  "topVenue": "bybit",
  "topVenueSharePct": 54.5,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "bybit",
      "oiUsd": 1673681357
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "oiUsd": 1399649239
    }
  ]
}
Cross Venue Price
{
  "venues": 7,
  "spreadBps": 16485.2,
  "agrees": false,
  "byVenue": [
    {
      "venue": "aster",
      "px": 1793.6
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 0.01808
    },
    {
      "venue": "okx",
      "px": 2123.65
    },
    {
      "venue": "edgex",
      "px": 1794.5307772606611
    },
    {
      "venue": "hyperliquid",
      "px": 1793.95
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 2312.14
    },
    {
      "venue": "binance",
      "px": 0.003048
    }
  ]
}
Price1794.29
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss1777.32
Take profit1828.24
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.95
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ETH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction70
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction70
Bear Conviction30
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: admin_test at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked ETH mostly because: FredAI flags the setup as avoid. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 3.9.
  • Admin test publish path
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • trend remains constructive, but pullback risk is elevated
FredAI policy
State
avoid
Score3.90
Conviction Adjustment-10
Risk Adjustment-4
Confidence13.60
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
  • trend remains constructive, but pullback risk is elevated
Note
FredAI flags the setup as avoid. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 3.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked ETH mostly because: FredAI flags the setup as avoid. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 3.9.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score1
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1,794.295
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
balanced_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
avoid
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ETH chart with overlay More thesesAll ETH theses